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049
FXUS61 KAKQ 031048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
648 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through late week with daily chances for
scattered showers and storms. A cold front pushes through Thursday
night into Friday bringing drier conditions for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 640 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Scattered light showers continue this morning with thunderstorms
this afternoon.

- There is a threat for localized urban/poor drainage flooding
across central and southeast Virginia this afternoon into this
evening.

The latest WX analysis indicates a weak shortwave moving across the
local area with scattered light showers continuing to develop. This
convection should gradually move E this morning, potentially
tapering off by mid-late morning. Temps as of 640 AM ranged
from the mid 60s to around 70F. Instability increases by this
afternoon as dewpoints rise into the upper 60s (to around 70F in
spots) with temps rising into the mid 80s. Weak NW flow aloft
will prevail, and another weak shortwave will approach later
today before tracking over the area tonight into early Tue. A
weak surface low forms over central VA this afternoon, allowing
for enough surface convergence for scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon. CAMs continue to show the highest coverage of
convection along the I-64 corridor, especially in SE VA. Will
maintain likely PoPs for areas generally along and E of I-95 and
along I-64 in central to SE VA. Elsewhere, have chance PoPs as
storm coverage is expected to be a bit less. With relatively
slow storm motions expected given the weak deep- layer flow and
moderately high (1.4-1.8") PW values, any storm will be capable
of producing a quick 1-2" of rain. This would be enough to
result in flooding of urban, suburban, and poor drainage areas.
WPC has maintained a MRGL ERO for central and SE VA to account
for the localized flash flood risk. Additionally, a few storms
may be strong with gusts to 40-50 mph in the strongest storms
due to wet microbursts. Storms taper off this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s
expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday with
  locally heavy rainfall possible.

High pressure slides S from New England to the Mid Atlantic
coastline on Tue which allows a bit of a weak backdoor cold front to
push inland. Scattered showers/storms are possible mainly along
this front/wind shift boundary as winds become E behind it with
a slight drop in T/Td. CAMs have trended less inland with the
front and now have it stalling through most of the day Tue. As
such, PoPs have increased (mainly across W portions of the FA).
A chance of showers and storms (~30% PoPs) continues across SW/W
portions of the FA Tue night as nearly stationary showers/storms
linger into the night. Upper ridging briefly builds over the
area Tue night-early Wed before moving just to our E by late
Wed. Meanwhile, a rather potent upper trough/low dives SE into
the Great Lakes at the same time. Shortwave energy ahead of
this trough will cross the area late Wed into Wed night,
providing enough forcing for scattered storms to form during
the afternoon and evening (highest PoPs west of I-95). Showers
and storms move E Wed night. A few storms may be strong with
strong winds the main threat. Additionally, WPC has the W
2/3rds of the FA under a marginal ERO for excessive rainfall
both Tue and Wed given slow storm motions. As such, localized
ponding on roadways and urban areas is possible. Highs in the
mid-upper 80s Tue and Wed with lows in the mid to upper 60s Tue
night and upper 60s to lower 70s Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible on Thursday.

- Drier weather prevails from Friday through the weekend.

A cutoff low likely moves over the Great Lakes by late week
before moving SE into interior New England this weekend. At the
surface, a cold front crosses the area Thu night into Fri. As
such, scattered afternoon storms are again possible on Thu,
with the highest PoPs near the coast as the low-level flow
becomes more westerly and dew points fall a bit. There is some
uncertainty regarding coverage (especially inland)...and areas
west of I-95 may very well be warm and dry on Thu. Convection
moves offshore by Thu night as the cold front ushers in drier
air. Highs Thu in the upper 80s. Dewpoints drop into the 50s for
most of the area (lower 60s near the coast) Fri and Sat with
highs in the lower 80s NW to mid-upper 80s SE Fri and low-mid
80s Sat. Can`t rule out an isolated shower/storm either day
given the upper level low just to the NW of the local area, but
chances are low. There is a slightly better chance for a shower
or storm Sun afternoon (25-30% NW) with highs in the mid 80s.
Chances become low once again on Mon (~15-20%) with highs in
the low- mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 645 AM EDT Monday...

Primarily VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 12z
taf period. Scattered light showers will continue to track E
this morning, potentially tapering off by mid-late morning. A
brief drop to around 5SM VIS is possible with any showers this
morning. Model guidance does show some MVFR CIGs lingering
across S central VA this morning, however, these lower CIGs will
likely remain away from the local terminals. Scattered storms
are expected to develop this afternoon before tapering off this
evening. Locally IFR VIS and perhaps MVFR CIGs are possible with
any storms. The best chance is at RIC/ORF/PHF from 19z-00z
although ECG/SBY may also see storms. Additionally, model
guidance continues to show the potential for patchy fog and/or
IFR CIGs in the Piedmont (and potentially SBY) tonight which may
reach RIC. Otherwise, SW winds increase to 5-10 kt this morning,
becoming variable at RIC and W at SBY in the afternoon. Winds
become light and variable tonight.

Tue looks mostly dry at the terminals with isolated to
scattered showers and storms possible across the Piedmont.
Otherwise, additional afternoon/evening storms are possible on
Wed/Thu.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Prevailing sub-SCA conditions forecast through Wednesday.

-Daily chances for storms over the waters.

Southwesterly winds are slightly elevated early this morning as a
shortwave pushes through the area. Speeds are currently 12-16kt with
gusts up to 20kt in a few locations. Guidance indicates that these
gusts will subside in the next few hours and return to 5-10kt for
the remainder of the day. Moisture has returned to the local area,
so expect a chance for storms this afternoon. Some storms will be
capable of producing localized higher winds and waves (this will be
handled with SMWs if necessary). This chance of showers and storms
will persist each day into at least late this week as shortwaves and
fronts continue to push through ahead of a potent upper level low
pressure system slowly trekking eastward along the Canadian border.
Outside from thunderstorms, the main "threat" to the marine forecast
would be a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday - southwesterly
winds are forecast to increase to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt
possible. The stronger winds currently look to occur over the
coastal waters. Speeds will subside Friday and into the weekend.

Seas are 2-3ft across the north early this morning, but are expected
to become 1-2ft along with the southern coastal waters by mid-day.
Waves in the Bay will remain around 1-2ft today  through mid-week.
Seas will eventually become 3-4ft, especially across the northern
waters, late Wednesday into Thursday. A low risk of rip currents is
expected at all local beaches today and Tuesday. The risk may
increase to moderate or high Wednesday and Thursday with nearshore
waves increasing to 3ft, with the highest threat across the northern
beaches where the wind and swell will be oriented more shore-
normal.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Some nuisance coastal flooding is looking likely to occur during the
high tide cycle Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Most tidal
sites will likely be impacted by this. Locations in the northern
Bay, such as Bishops Head, may bump into minor flood stage. The
following high tide cycle Wednesday night/early Thursday morning may
bring similar impacts as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...JKP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...