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275
FXUS61 KAKQ 260827
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
427 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front followed by a cold front will affect the area
this afternoon through Monday night, bringing additional rounds
of showers and storms and potential severe weather Monday. An
upper trough brings cooler and comfortable weather to end the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 415 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon
  through tonight.

Early this morning, latest radar showed isolated showers or
tstms over portions of the VA nrn neck and the Lower MD ern
shore. They will continue to weaken and dissipate in the next
hour or two. Otherwise, the sky ranged from clear to mostly
cloudy across the region, with some areas of fog and stratus.
Temps were ranging from the mid 60s to around 70.

Very warm and humid today under a partly to mostly sunny sky.
Highs will be mainly in the mid to upper 80s (near 80/lower 80s
near the coast). There are a few factors that favor slightly
higher convective coverage and perhaps intensity for late today .
through this evening. On the synoptic scale, slightly higher
mid-level flow overspreads the area in advance of a shortwave
tracking from the OH River Valley into the Great Lakes. Dew
points will be a degree or two higher than Sat, favoring a more
unstable low-level airmass. Hi-res model output shows MLCAPE
increasing to 1500-2500 J/kg away from the eastern shore with
~20 kt of effective shear areawide. The limiting factor early
this aftn will be a lack of any triggering mechanisms. The one
exception are sea breezes which could focus areas of higher
coverage. Toward later this aftn and evening, there is moderate
agreement that some sort of MCS will be moving eastward from
the Appalachia region in association with the upper disturbance.
As this enters into the FA, will need to watch for the potential
for strong wind gusts, esply if it moves in with some lingering
instability. Most CAMs show a considerable weakening trend,
esply as it nears the I-95 corridor and points eastward. SPC
has now put the entire area except the immediate coast in a
Marginal Risk for today. Lingering isolated to sctd showers or a
tstm will be possible overnight into Mon morning. Lows tonight
in the mid 60s to around 70. Patchy fog could also develop
tonight as weak sfc flow continues.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 415 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- There is a threat of severe weather for Memorial Day (Monday).
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats.

Anomalous upper trough slides E for Mon into Mon night. At the
sfc, a strong cold front will approach from the W. There is
increasing concern for severe wx areawide Mon aftn and evening
ahead of this front. It is during this time that 500 mb flow
increases to 40-60 kt and a potent shortwave noses into the
region. Instability will also be in plentiful supply with MLCAPE
well in excess of 2000 J/kg at times. This is not only due to
steep low-level lapse rates and strong sfc instability, but
also because of steep mid-level lapse rates approaching 7-8
C/km. Thinking is that supercells or multicells will initially
be favored (with damaging winds and large hail hazards),
transitioning to a predominantly wind threat, as clusters grow
upscale. SPC has a Slight Risk for just about the entire area
for Mon. The extent and duration of the severe risk will be
dependent on the exact timing (later timing may reduce the
severe threat farther E/SE, as instability wanes). Locally
heavy rain is also likely in any storm. Overall, certainly
worth watching and monitoring the latest updates here and from
SPC, esply with a plethora of scheduled outdoor activities for
the holiday weekend. Outside of storms, highs will be in the
mid to upper 80s most places with dew points in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Thus, it will feel noticeably muggy. Lows Mon night
in the lower to mid 60s W, to near 70 E/SE.

Much quieter Tue and Tue night with a lingering shower or storm
across the far SE. Highs in the lower to mid 80s under a mostly
sunny sky. Lows Tue night in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 420 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Trending cooler and more comfortable for the middle and end of
next week.

A relatively deep trough will drop into and remain positioned
over the ern CONUS for Wednesday through at least early next
weekend. Except for a chance of a shower/tstm over nrn portions
of the area Wed aftn into Wed evening in advance of a shortwave,
dry weather will prevail through the extended period. Highs Wed
in the upper 70s-low 80s. Comfortable conditions under a partly
to mostly sunny sky expected for Thu and Fri, with highs in the
mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows in the upper 50s-low 60s Tue
night and 50s areawide Wed-Fri night. Can`t rule out some upper
40s across the NW at some point.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

There is a good possibility of fog and low stratus development
twd morning. The highest coverage will be at the coastal TAF
sites and IFR/LIFR restrictions look likely at ORF/PHF/ECG/SBY.
Expect rapid improvement after 9 AM/13z this morning. Sctd
showers/storms will again be possible this aftn into this
evening, with highest confidence at RIC. Could again see fog or
low stratus tonight.

Outlook: A higher coverage of showers and storms (some of which
could be severe) is expected Mon through Mon evening. Outside
of storms, expect mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions this afternoon/evening.

- Dense marine fog possible tonight into Sunday morning.

- Chances for showers and storms (especially each afternoon and
evening) through Memorial Day.

Benign marine conditions across the local waters this afternoon,
with high pressure remaining in place over the region. Winds are
generally out of the E to SE around 5-10 kt with waves 1 ft or less
and seas 1-2 ft. Winds become light tonight into Sunday morning and
we will have to watch the potential for the development of dense fog
over the waters. Similar conditions tomorrow with increasing
onshore winds by the afternoon/evening.

A cold front approaches the area on Monday, associated with a
deepening low pressure center over the Great Lakes. Winds increase
out of the S and SW ahead of the front, with winds potentially
approaching SCA criteria Monday afternoon and evening. Winds veer
around to the NW behind the front on Tuesday into midweek.
Widespread showers and storms (potentially strong to severe) will be
possible on Monday ahead of the approaching cold front. E-SE swell
behind that system that could briefly bring some 5 foot seas by
Monday night. However, seas quickly subside as winds turn back
offshore through midweek.

Low Rip Risk on area beaches tomorrow, with a moderate rip risk for
northern beaches on Monday with building seas and more of a shore
normal component to wave energy.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...SW/TMG
LONG TERM...SW/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJB/MAM