-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
313
FXUS61 KALY 240537
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
137 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring sunny, dry, breezy and pleasant weather
on Friday. A few showers are possible Saturday night into Sunday
as a disturbance crosses the region. A stronger low pressure
system is expected to bring a widespread rainfall early next
week with occasional showers lingering into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 120 AM EDT, the cold front has now passed to
the south of the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County, CT as
a drier air mass builds into the region. High pressure will
slowly build into the region into Friday night as weak upper
troughing overhead on Friday departs and upper ridging builds in
Friday night.

A clear/mostly clear sky is expected through Friday night.
This, combined with light to calm winds, has resulted in
good radiational cooling conditions in spots tonight with some
locations already falling toward the lower end of guidance.
Lows should generally bottom out in the mid-40s to mid-50s
across most areas. Some fog has developed across Litchfield and
Dutchess counties (where the steadiest rain fell on Thursday)
and should remain concentrated across these areas overnight.

Temperatures will moderate well on Friday with highs reaching
the 70s across most areas with some lower to mid-80s along the
Hudson Valley and into Litchfield County, CT (around 5 to 10
degrees above average). Gusty west to northwesterly winds are
likely to develop for Friday afternoon as a dry cold front
crosses the area. Some gusts over 30 mph are possible from the
Mohawk Valley to the Capital District and Berkshires. This
should aid in mixing out dewpoints so blended in the NBM10% for
the afternoon hours and for Friday night.

Precipitable water values lower further Friday night (under 0.50
of an inch) as the high from Canada builds overhead. This,
combined with a continued clear sky and light to calm winds will
result in more ideal radiational cooling conditions. Have
blended in the colder guidance with lows for Friday night
including the NBM10% and MET/MAV MOS. This could result in lows
generally in the 40s to lower 50s with some upper 30s possible
across portions of the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak upper energy tracks east out of the Great Lakes and OH
Valley later Saturday and Saturday night. Ahead of the upper
energy and warm advection, dry weather with lots of sun. Some
increasing clouds in the afternoon. Highs Saturday in the mid
70s to lower 80s. Scattered showers and a possible rumble of
thunder Saturday night with the leading edge of warm advection,
then intervals of clouds and sun on Sunday and mainly dry. An
isolated shower cannot be ruled out in the southern Adirondacks
and southern Green Mountains. Highs Sunday around 80 to mid 80s
with 70s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong upper energy from the central and northern plains tracks
through the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. As the energy
approaches and tracks through our region by Monday, strengthening
warm advection, moisture advection and low level jet energy
will support increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the day Monday. Showers and thunderstorms continue
through Tuesday as the upper energy lifts northeast into eastern
Canada and the associated cold front tracks through our region.
Highs Monday and Tuesday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain.

Potential break in the showers with scattered to isolated
coverage Tuesday night, before another strong upper impulse
tracks out of the Great Lakes and OH Valley Wednesday into
Thursday with more chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Potentially less instability Wednesday and
Thursday due to cooler low level temperatures in the region, so
more showery and just isolated thunderstorms.

Highs Wednesday in the 60s to lower 70s with some upper 50s
southern Adirondacks. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 60s
with around 60 southern Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the 24 hour TAF period. There is a low probability of
radiational ground fog at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF through the early
morning hours, however fog development is generally not expected
given dry advection and fairly decent westerly winds above the
low level inversion. So will just mention TEMPO for MVFR vsby
given expected conditions. VFR with mainly clear skies will
prevail after 12z today.

Winds will initially be calm, becoming southwest around 5 kt
shortly after sunrise, then shift to the west-northwest this
afternoon with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt and gusts of 20-25
kt developing.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...JPV