-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
100
FXUS61 KBGM 260808
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
408 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be mostly dry, other than a few brief pop up showers
in Northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills. Our next system
moves in late tonight into Monday with heavy rain and a chance
for thunderstorms. Additional scattered showers will linger
through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
355 AM Update...

A foggy start to the day, but conditions will improve later this
morning with clearing skies. Today will be mostly dry, however a
stationary front draped across Wyoming Valley - Poconos to
Catskills will be the focus for some isolated showers or
thunderstorm late this afternoon and this evening. The rest of
the area though will be mostly sunny with a lot of dry air
mixing down from above the boundary layer.

Clouds will increase overnight, as a warm front slides
northward across the region. Deep southwesterly return flow will
increase PWATs to over 1.5", which is above the 95th percentile
for this time of year. Rain chances will start to bump up
towards dawn Monday, especially Twin Tiers southward as that
warm front moving into the region. Widespread rain showers are
expected through the day Monday, but heaviest rainfall will
likely hold off until late in the day.

Forecast soundings on Monday show a fairly deep warm cloud
depth above 10K feet and as we get into the later part of the
day, long skinny CAPE is present through this deep warm cloud
layer, especially in NE PA. Any showers and thunderstorms that
do kick off in the afternoon will have intense rainfall rates.
Training and backbuilding cells will be possible late in the day
and into Monday night (past this period) as a quasi-stationary
front should remain over this region. Short Corfidi vectors
Monday evening shows back building cells will be favorable. At
this time, we will hold off from issuing a flood watch,
however, will continue to highlight the flash flooding threat in
the HWO and a watch may be needed at a later time. WPC has
also highlighted a slight risk for flash flooding in NE PA and
into the Catskills and a Marginal risk for the rest of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
405 AM Update...

As the front associated with our storm system on Monday pushes
through our eastern areas later in the evening, showers and
thunderstorms will be tapering off overnight as cooler, drier
air filters in in its wake. Lows Monday night will range from
the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. A broad upper level trough will
push east Tuesday and settle in over the region through midweek
with several embedded shortwaves expected to rotate through.
This will lead to additional shower chances Tuesday and
Wednesday, which will be primarily diurnally driven. There has
been an uptick in instability on Tuesday and strong shear
appears to be in place, so if there`s any thunder, that seems to
be the better day.

Highs Tuesday are expected to be from the upper 60s to the mid
70s, then it trends cooler Wednesday with a more persistent
northwest flow in place with highs mainly in the 60s. Lows will
fall into the low and mid 50s Tuesday night, then drop well into
the 40s for much of the area Wednesday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
405 AM Update...

Despite the trough remaining overhead Thursday, there looks to
be a drier push of air moving over the region both at the low
and mid levels and this would help limit shower activity this
day. The cool, northwest flow will again lead to highs in the
60s for Thursday with lows in the 40s at night. An uptick in
moisture on Friday can lead to isolated showers, then the upper
trough finally looks to push off to the east allowing for
ridging to develop next weekend. This would lead to the return
of drier and warmer conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Abundant low level in place over the region with foggy
conditions and low ceilings expected through the morning hours.
VLIFR conditions expected at ELM and IFR ceilings and fog expected
at all other NY sites. AVP should stay VFR most of the morning,
but some MVFR stratus may push overhead just before sunrise and
persist for a few hours this morning before clearing.

Improvement occurs late morning and all site return back to VFR
under weak high pressure. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible towards the end of the TAF period, but not enough
confidence to include at this time.

Outlook...

Sunday evening...Mainly VFR.

Monday through Wednesday...Occasional restrictions likely from
multiple batches of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MPK