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241
FXUS61 KBGM 230957
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
557 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front exits the region by early this afternoon with
scattered showers and thunderstorms for the southern half of the
area. High pressure builds in tonight with quiet weather on
Friday, however a weak system brings another round of showers
and thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

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555 AM Update...

Shortwave trough pushing out of Central PA this morning and into
NE PA will continue to kick of showers and thunderstorms. Still
plenty of instability aloft, with forecast model soundings
showing 1000+ J/kg of MUCAPE at Avoca and 35 KT of 0-6 km shear.
There will be potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm or 2
across NE PA and into Sullivan County NY through mid to late
morning. Brief heavy downpours will also make for a tough
commute this morning across the Scranton/Wilkes Barre area.


4 AM Update...

Cold front and associated upper short wave will push through
the region by early this afternoon. Short wave will push
northeast out of the Ohio Valley this morning and push across NE
PA by late morning/early this afternoon. This will help keep
heavy showers and thunderstorms going across portions of NE PA
and the Catskills through the morning hours. High pressure will
finally build in behind this front this afternoon and evening.
Clouds will clear late today and tonight with quiet weather
through the remainder of the period. Also, dew point
temperatures will drop 15 to 20 degrees by Friday, bringing a
relief to the hot a humid conditions the area has seen the last
few days. Friday is shaping up to be a nice one, with sunny
skies and highs topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s and low
humidity.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
335 AM Update...

High pressure in control at the surface and weak ridging aloft
will lead to dry conditions Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be mostly clear and with cooler, drier air
filtering in, did blend in a little of the NBM 10th percentile
into the forecast. Lows will mainly be in the upper 40s and low
50s.

After the dry start to the day Saturday, clouds will increase
as an upper level shortwave and weak frontal boundary approach
the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop later in the day ahead of the front and continue into
Saturday night as the front gradually moves through. Highs
Saturday will range from the upper 70s to the low 80s. Some
valley locations may reach the mid 80s, especially with the
trend being slower with the arrival of precipitation. Lows
Saturday night will be milder in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

Sunday is expected to be largely dry with just a slight chance
(<25%) of a shower or thunderstorm with the heating of the day
with the front still close by. The best chance for this would be
over NE PA and the southern Catskills. High temperatures will
be similar to Saturday in the upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
335 AM Update...

A warm front associated with our next storm system is expected
to lift north toward the area Sunday night and the main area of
low pressure lifts northeast into the Great Lakes on Monday,
Memorial Day. As a result, showers and thunderstorms look likely
for the holiday. As the low continues northeastward into SE
Canada, a broad upper trough remains over the region with a
couple of embedded shortwaves rotating through. This will keep
the area unsettled with a chance of additional showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, especially during peak
heating hours.

Highs Memorial Day are expected to be in the low to mid 70s,
then it will cool down into the 60s by Wednesday. Lows Tuesday
and Wednesday night will be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front will push through the region this morning with a
chance for more showers and thunderstorms, mostly in NE PA and
possibly into the Southern Tier and this will be accompanied by
a period of MVFR ceilings at AVP.

Showers and thunderstorms will push east of the area by mid
morning, with VFR conditions prevailing through the day.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly western areas Sat afternoon, then
spreading east overnight.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

Monday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BTL/MPK/MPH