-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
110
FXUS61 KBTV 042319
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from an isolated shower, dry conditions will continue
through tonight as temperatures remain above normal. More
coverage of showers with a few thunderstorms is expected for
tomorrow, with slightly higher heat and humidity. Then the
pattern turns less hot and rather unsettled with periods of
showers on Thursday and through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 713 PM EDT Tuesday...For those keeping score at home, BTV
has had its 2nd 90 degree reading for the year by a hair this
afternoon. It`s another hot day for this point of the year
across the region with 80s throughout. Some convection has
finally popped up west of Saranac Lake this evening, and one
managed to even produce a handful of lightning flashes. This has
been handled well with the going forecast and simply added
definition to what`s now visible. Activity should begin to wane
as the sun sets, but there still could be an isolated shower
that develops as a very weak boundary slides across the region
with marginal elevated instability. Have a great night!

Previous discussion...
For the vast majority of locations, today marks the 7th
consecutive day of dry weather. It was also another very warm
day with temperatures ranging through the 80s. Widely isolated
showers that were terrain driven may perk up early this evening
before losing steam with loss of heating, as there will be
little upper level forcing to maintain instability tonight. That
being said, any stronger shower/pulse thunderstorm could
survive as a relatively light rain shower into the first part of
the night, with some low PoPs indicated into portions of south
central Vermont in case showers from the west can survive. As
weak surface high pressure settles to our southeast, some
surface southerly flow will develop such that overnight
temperatures will be relatively warm compared to the last couple
of nights. The milder air will also be due to increasing low
level moisture contributed by west/southwest low level flow
around the ridge, as source air will be from the Midwest where
dew points are currently in the low to mid 60s.

For Wednesday into Wednesday night, an upper level ridge will be
dampened by a wave trying to drop southeastward out of southern
Quebec. Our region, extending eastward through northern New
England, looks to be in the sweet spot for higher instability
than to our south and west as we see some upper level height
falls while low level air continues to get a bit juicier with
weak warm air advection. As such, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will blossom, and potentially well before noontime
given progged CAPE being driven by the aforementioned upper
level wave rather than just surface heating. In fact, progged
precipitable water and instability both look to trend lower in
the afternoon, with better chances for additional showers and
thunderstorms tending to shift north and east during that
period. Overall, we remain unconcerned with widespread hazardous
weather given recent dryness, relatively weak forcing for
thunderstorms tomorrow. Will still need to watch for a spot or
two where a downpour could linger and produced heavy rain in a
small footprint, as cloud layer flow will be be pretty light.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front passes through Thursday into Thursday night, bringing
widespread rainfall. The overall flow will be relatively light so
there will be the chance of some slow-moving or training showers.
However, the flow should be just fast enough to push the front
through and mostly limit this potential. The front will move to the
east of the region late Thursday night and there should be a decent
break in the precipitation after. Overall, thinking QPF will
generally be between 0.75 and 1.25 inches. While this is higher than
previously forecast, the flooding threat is still very limited.
Overall, the percentage of ensemble members forecasting over an
inch has not changed much from yesterday, still around 30%. However,
over 90% are now forecasting over 0.5 inches instead of 50-60%, so
the solutions mostly converged to around yesterday`s 75th
percentile. Therefore, it is unlikely that it trends much higher,
though there will still likely be localized higher amounts where the
heavier showers develop. Given the dry antecedent conditions, any
flash flooding is unlikely. The WPC has the region in a marginal
risk ERO for up to a 5 percent chance of flash flooding and that
seems reasonable, though it is probably in the low end of the range.
Mainstem river flooding is not a concern. Highs on Thursday will be
in the 70s to around 80 and lows Thursday night will be in the 50s
and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled pattern will be in place during much of this period as
a closed off low will be lingering over the North Country. Overall,
shower coverage will increase during the day as diurnal heating and
cold air aloft cause instability and it will wane at night as the
atmosphere stabilizes. Embedded shortwaves will pivot around this
low and increase shower chances at different times and will provide
the lift to continue the showers overnight if they come through then.
Right now, it looks like showers will be more numerous through
Sunday and become a little more scattered starting Monday. The
closed off low finally looks to exit the region mid to late week and
the shower chances will subsequently become much less numerous.
Temperatures during this period will be below to around normal, but
persistence will be the trend with little change in temperatures
between each day.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 00Z Thursday...Conditions are VFR. Mainly mid to high
clouds are present, but there are some cumulus around with
bases 6000-8000 ft agl. A few showers are on radar west of SLK
and should pulse generally east before diminishing the sunset
over the next couple hours. It`s possible some brief reduction
in visibility could take place, but activity is so localized
that it has been left at 6SM in a TEMPO through 01z. Otherwise,
mainly light and variable winds tonight becoming south to
southwest tomorrow with increasing chances for pop up showers
generally after 14 to 15z.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Based on the current forecast, daily records are possible over
the next three days at some climate sites.

Record high maximum temperatures are possible today and
tomorrow, primarily at Massena and Montpelier. A record high
minimum temperature may occur at Plattsburgh for those nights.
Record daily precipitation is possible at Massena on Thursday.


Current Record High Temperatures:

June 4:
KMPV: 85/1967

June 5:
KMPV: 85/2021
KMSS: 88/1974


Current Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 5:
KPBG: 65/1963

June 6:
KPBG: 67/1973


Current Record Precipitation:

June 6:
KMSS: 1.09/1953

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes
CLIMATE...Kutikoff