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009
FXUS61 KBTV 241718
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
118 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions will continue through Saturday morning with
northerly breezes today. Unsettled weather and cooler
temperatures return towards the beginning of next week.
Currently, Monday appears to be the most active day with
potential for thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 118 PM EDT Friday...No changes needed to the forecast for
this afternoon. A weak front continues to track east of the
region and in it`s wake we`ve got a gorgeous day with partly
sunny skies, temps in the 70s, and very comfortable humidity.
Enjoy!

Clear skies again tonight and a weakening pressure gradient
will promote more efficient cooling with lows mainly in the 40s
to around 50 degrees. While chances are very low, some of the
coldest hollows could dip into the 30s and may have a little
frost; this would be only possible in typically colder spots in
the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks.

For Saturday, temperatures will cool another degree or two for
the daytime highs keeping conditions feeling pleasant. Late in
the afternoon, rain chances begin to increase west to east as a
weak boundary tracks into the western reaches of northern New
York.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Friday...Shower chances peak Saturday night as
a decaying boundary tracks west to east through the North
Country. Can`t rule out a stray rumble of thunder mainly across
northern New York late in the evening. QPF will be meager as the
parent low stacks barotropically in north-central Canada with
upper level support lifting north of the Canadian border; not a
recipe for strong forcing or heavy rainfall. Still a few
hundredths of an inch of rain are possible. Temperatures will be
mild overnight with lows likely in the 50s and warming into the
mid/upper 70s for Sunday; a few 80 degree temperatures are
possible in southern Vermont and portions of the Champlain
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Friday...Models have been favoring a more
potent system to move into the Northeast on Memorial Day
bringing chances of more widespread thunderstorms and
potentially heavy rainfall. Projections are for a digging
longwave trough to tap into some southern US moisture and
advecting it northward. Upper level support isn`t overly robust,
but low level jet signatures do warrant some consideration.
850mb jet is on the stronger side for this time of year with
50-60kts across model suites; PWATs are anomalous as well -
above 1.5" suggesting heavy rainfall should thunderstorms form.
Synoptic QPF signatures are not overly wet, but still could
contribute 0.5-1.25" of liquid depending on which model verifies
best. WPC has included the Northeast in a Marginal Risk for
flash flooding, or about a 5% chance. We`ll be keeping a tab on
Monday watching this system`s evolution.

Otherwise, conditions will likely remain unsettled with broad
longwave troughing highly favored to linger through much of next
week. This pattern supports cooling temperatures back to
seasonal averages in the upper 60s to low 70s with showers
possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 12Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with a low probability for fog at KSLK overnight.
Otherwise, fair weather clouds across the region this afternoon
will trend to SKC towards sunset, continuing overnight, with
just some high clouds approaching from the west Saturday
morning. Higher aviation impact will continue to be the winds
this afternoon, gusting 20-25kts from the WNW, which won`t abate
until after 00Z when winds will trend light and variable
thereafter. Variable winds at 6kts or less are expected for
Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Lahiff