-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
790
FXUS61 KBTV 260544
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
144 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A few showers and a possible embedded thunderstorm will pass
through early this morning. Drier and warmer weather will move
in for Sunday as high pressure briefly returns. Rain showers
will gradually overspread the region on Memorial Day and last
into Tuesday. Behind the storm, cooler weather will prevail for
mid to late week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 134 AM EDT Sunday...Showers have popped up on radar, but
coverage is more scattered. 925-850mb convergence lines are
present from south of Saranac Lake extending through southern
Chittenden/Addison Counties and across central Rutland County.
These will be the primary focus areas for hit or miss
showers. Model forcing isn`t overly strong, so kept main mode of
precipitation as showers, but can`t rule out a rarer
thunderstorm completely. These showers will pass through by the
mid morning hours.

Previous Discussion...Clouds are increasing this afternoon and
rain showers will arrive this evening. These will be from a
dying occluded front that will make its way through the region.
The steadiest rain will pass by to the south and it will mostly
be some scattered showers here. Some elevated instability will
develop overnight and a couple of the showers may contain some
thunder, but they will generally be unimpressive. QPF will
mostly be under a tenth of an inch but the areas that see the
convective showers will see a little more. The showers will move
out later in the night and partial clearing will occur. With
light winds and plentiful low- level moisture from the rain in
place, patchy fog should develop.

A warmer and slightly more humid airmass will move in behind
the front for Sunday. Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s to
low 80s and dew points will be in the 50s. Daytime heating
could cause isolated showers to develop, mainly over the high
terrain and southeast Vermont. Ridging will briefly build in for
late Sunday and Sunday night, and skies should gradually clear.
The dry weather will be short-lived though as rain showers will
begin to enter the region late Sunday night. These will be out
ahead of a stronger area of low pressure that will impact the
region Monday-Tuesday. Winds will shift to southeasterly and
begin to strengthen later in the night. Lows will therefore
likely be during the middle of the night as the winds will mix
warm air down to the surface and strengthen warm-air advection
and likley cause temperatures to rise. Lows will overall be
mild, with temperatures only dropping into the mid 50s to lower
60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...A surface occlusion is expected to
develop across the region on Monday as low pressure matures
across the Great Lakes area. 40-50kt mid-level flow will
transport warm, moist air north. The combination of isentropic
lift and weak elevated instability will drive isolated showers
with a few rumbles of thunder. Abundant cloud cover will keep
conditions a bit cooler, but still on the warm side in addition
to higher dewpoints move into the area. Additionally, the
increased mid-level flow will likely yield some 20 to 30 mph
gusts, locally up to 35 mph on Monday.

The bulk of precipitation will occur Monday evening into the
overnight when sharper surface confluence develops along the
occluded front. The front will be slow to progress east, but a
jet streak will approach to help force it east towards dawn on
Tuesday before it can really outstay its welcome. Areal extent
will decrease with the loss of daytime heating, but never
completely diminish. With the humid air mass, expect mainly mid
50s to lower 60s. The front doesn`t quite clear Vermont until
afternoon, and so showers and storms could develop early before
shifting out. Then showers rotating within the upper low will
reach St. Lawrence County as well. The tongue of dry air
associated with a dry slot will keep the Champlain Valley and
southern Vermont relatively dry on Tuesday. Expect another
seasonably warm day in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...Forecast guidance diverges fairly
quickly beyond Tuesday. The primary source of difference is how
deep the upper low is. The deeper it is, the slower the model
wants to shift it out of the region. Additional pop-up, hit-or-
miss shower activity will be present through the remainder of
the week. Probabilistic data currently suggests Friday and
Saturday have lower chances for precipitation, but as we head
deeper into summer, their skill will suffer as convection
becomes more common place. However, the pattern overall does not
appear likely to be too wet heading into the following week and
CPC does forecast Day 6-10 as drier than normal too. With
general troughiness, it does appear that we will spend a few
days on the cooler side of normal for a few days. Expect mid 60s
for the midweek to trend back into the 70s by the weekend with
40s to 50s overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 06Z Monday...Low level clouds 040-060 have kept fog
chances nil through 06Z. Any appreciable chances of fog will be
predicated on the occurrences of rain on station at SLK/MPV and
clearing of skies for MSS/EFK. As such, kept some mist in at
SLK since main area of showers has formed just south of Saranac
Lake and not directly in line with the terminal. Also, MSS may
miss out with low level clouds widespread on satellite imagery;
kept mention of VCFG should any clearing occur. For BTV/PBG/RUT,
shower chances are marginal with RUT have the best chances of
seeing some rain. Kept light SHRA through 10Z. After 12Z, shower
chances decrease sharply with VFR anticipated through the
remainder of the periods.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd/Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Myskowski/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Boyd