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957
FXUS61 KCTP 202301
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
701 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Our preview of summer weather through midweek, as a ridge of
high pressure maintains warm and mainly dry conditions and
light winds. A storm system moving north of the Great Lakes will
push its trailing cold front through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday, bringing the next chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lingering showers should become confined to
southern PA on Friday before returning northward Memorial Day
weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Isolated showers and even a bit of thunder continue to affect
portions of north-central PA. This activity should trend
downward as we lose the heat of the day later this evening.

The overnight will be similar to the last few nights, with
perhaps a bit less nighttime stratus. Valley fog is probable
again, and have maintained the mention of patchy fog in the
forecast. Min temps will be mild, bottoming out in the 55-60
degree range.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Temperatures will continue to warm a bit each day through
Wednesday, as this summer-like stretch of weather continues
through midweek.

Periphery of upper level ridging/ring of fire type pattern
reaches central PA late Wednesday with enough moisture for a
more widespread chance of diurnally driven shower/tstorm
activity Wednesday evening. SPC has painted a MRGL SVR risk for
northwestern PA on Wed, with general thunder elsewhere.

More widespread showers are expected to arrive late Wed night
into Thursday, as cold front slowly sags across the region.
The best chance of widespread measurable rainfall appears to be
Thursday with this setup.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temperatures remain on the warm side through the end of this
week as the cold front to come through on Thursday and then
stall out just south of PA on Friday. This will mean that the
chance for scattered showers and t-storms will remain in the
forecast for southern PA on the back side of that surface front.
High temperatures will remain in the mid 70s as we move through
Friday and into the weekend.

There is considerable uncertainty heading into the weekend with
regards to rain chances, but it appears that there is a chc
that our weather could remain unsettled. PoPs have been capped
at around 40 given the disagreement between model guidance for
the likelihood of showers and storms. The best looking day for
little rain is currently Sunday with upper level ridging
building in ahead of the next system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Isolated showers/tstms will develop across northwest part of
the airspace through about 21/02Z. Should be short lived but
have included VCTS in BFD TAF for the next 2 hours. Elsewhere,
generally VFR conditions are expected through the evening.

VFR prevails overnight and into Tuesday with patchy fog and low
cloud impacts possible again during the predawn and early
morning hours Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR/no sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Chance of t-storms.

Fri-Sat...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers.
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&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Evanego
NEAR TERM...Evanego
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Evanego
LONG TERM...Evanego/Bowen
AVIATION...Gartner/Bowen