-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
672
FXUS62 KILM 310549
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
145 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably mild temperatures are expected through Saturday as
dry high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the eastern
Carolinas. The high will push offshore Sunday, bringing warmer
and more humid air across the area with isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible most of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes were needed with this early evening
forecast update. High-based cumulus may persist through the
evening at the top of our deep daytime mixed layer. Limited
moisture will remain aloft as a positively tilted upper
disturbance pushes through the Mid Atlantic states tonight and
then off the NC coast Friday morning. This could allow some
scattered altocumulus to linger through Friday morning.

Changes with this update were all minor, focusing on winds and
clouds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highly amplified pattern will continue through Friday
with another surge of cool and dry air pushing in early Friday
morning. Lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 50s and highs
Friday...very similar to today`s values in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet short term period with high pressure building behind a dry
cold front. Fri night lows will be about 5-10 degrees below normal
but still a decent 10 deg above record lows. Clear skies and calm
winds will allow us to radiate out as well, so mixed in some cooler
guidance for the lows overall while also dropping temps in our
colder spots by a couple degrees. Lows away from the coast are in
the low to mid 50s with colder spots near 50 while the coast will be
more near 60. The center of the high will move offshore late Sat
with moisture and temps beginning to recover in its return flow.
With the switch to onshore flow and a slight increase in cloud cover
overnight, lows Sat night should recover but the extent will be hard
to pinpoint. Went on the cooler side of guidance for now as winds
are still expected to be light so there shouldn`t be too much mixing
with lows near 60. Low precip chances and increased cloud cover Sun
due to a passing shortwave aloft and recovering moisture behind the
high, primarily inland. Highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The center of the high will move further offshore to our south with
us sitting in its return flow. Diurnal shower and storm chances are
expected every day with warming temperatures. Temps will be above
seasonable norms through next week with highs near 90 and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR thru the 24 hr TAF Issuance period. Sfc cfp or trof passage will
result in NNW-NNE 5 to 10 kt prior to sunrise, around 10 kt with
g15kt from daytime morning thru mid afternoon. Winds will veer to
the NE-E in the aftn/evening as the sfc high drops toward the
Carolinas from the Great Lakes. Looking at SCT 7k ft clouds thru
this aftn. Thin cirrus will follow later this aftn into this
evening.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening TS are
possible beginning Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Very modest northeast to east flow in place
(trending a bit downward) and will continue for most of the
afternoon and overnight period. A secondary surge of cool air/higher
winds will move across early Friday morning increasing winds only
slightly. Overall speeds in a 5-15 knot range with the higher values
moreso Friday. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet early on dropping
to near 2 feet Friday.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Benign marine conditions under high
pressure, the center of which will move offshore late Sat. Light E
flow veers to the SW late Sat into Sun morning, speeds generally 10-
15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/LEW