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212
FXUS61 KILN 232347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
747 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Episodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end
of the work week and into the weekend. Temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through the weekend before a
stronger system impacts the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday,
which will reduce temperatures to near normal at the beginning
of the next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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A stalled frontal boundary is currently draped across the
southern portions of our CWA. While fairly weak, it will help
provide a source of lift for a relatively warm/humid, unstable
air mass. Temperatures will not climb quite as high today, but
upper 70s to near 80 degrees will be observed.

CAMs suggest storm coverage may increase later this afternoon
into the evening hours. This is likely in response to a subtle
shortwave that ripples through southern portions of our CWA.
Overall, solutions are quite different amongst hi-res models
given the weak forcing in place, so will have to see how this
environment responds to this source of energy. PoPs will be
highest for southern OH and northern KY, but isolated
shower/storm development will still become possible for areas
further north towards the I-70 corridor.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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A chance of showers and storms will continue into the evening.
Then, as the aforementioned disturbance moves east and
instability wanes, pcpn should diminish and come to an end.
Quasi-stationary frontal boundary will slowly move north as a
warm front overnight. We could see some low clouds and some
patchy/areas of fog overnight, especially south of the front
given a light wind regime and high humidity. Lows will drop into
the lower 60s.

On Friday, weak mid level ridging will be across our region
during the morning, so dry weather is expected. Low clouds and
fog will lift during the morning. Our attention will then turn
to the west and northwest. Warm and humid air will advect north,
bringing at least moderate MLCAPE values to the region. Several
convective allowing models have been showing a potential MCS
complex developing across the Plains, moving east into our
region by late in the day or evening. For now, it appears this
system may be on a weakening trend as it enters our area.
However, given moderate instability, we could still see a strong
or severe storm in the late afternoon and into the evening
hours. Will mention this in the HWO. Otherwise, it will be warm
and humid with highs in the lower to perhaps mid 80s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The extended period will begin in a zonal flow pattern as
periodic pieces of shortwave energy push east across the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. On Friday night, the first of these with
an associated line of showers and storms will push east through
the Ohio Valley. Most guidance shows this line will be decaying
as it lifts into the ridge over the East Coast.

A drying period looks to arrive on Saturday before a stronger
disturbance approaches Sunday. Guidance continues to show a
rather deep surface low tracking from eastern Kansas to southern
Wisconsin Sunday/Sunday night which would increase the
potential for strong to severe storms (increased vertical wind
profile, better forcing).

An upper trough moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late
Monday into the mid week, finally bringing a return to near
normal or slightly below normal temperatures after an extended
warm spell.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Starting to see isolated thunderstorm activity beginning to
develop with all TAF sites having VCTS for the first few hours
of the TAF. As shower and thunderstorm activity weakens,
attention shifts to the potential for stratus and fog overnight
and into Friday morning (12Z-16Z). Plentiful rain and
thunderstorms south of the Ohio River will supply a moisture
rich air mass which will move north during the 06Z-10Z time
frame. Similar to last night, could see restrictions begin at
low-end MVFR or IFR in the southwest sites, including CVG/LUK,
and ILN.

From 12Z-16Z, we will see restrictions improve back to VFR.

Late in the 30-hour CVG TAF, there is increasing confidence
that a line of storms will move into the area from the west
after 00Z Saturday. Timing will continue to be sharpened up,
but went ahead with a westerly wind shift and mention of showers
for now at CVG. Strong wind gusts greater than 30 knots may
occur with this activity.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Monday.
MVFR/IFR/LIFR/VLIFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday
morning.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...McGinnis