-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
963
FXUS64 KMRX 310718
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
318 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Messages:

1. Warmer today, with temperatures closer to normal.


Discussion:

Another quiet day across the area with high pressure firmly in
control. The ridge axis shifts east and will be centered across the
area today. This means warmer temps and light winds. High temps will
be closer to normal compared to what we have been seeing the last
few days. Otherwise, cloud cover begins to spread in from the
west tonight ahead of an approaching shortwave across the ArkLaTex
region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Messages:

1. Slightly below to near normal temperatures through the weekend,
with near to slightly above normal temperatures next week.

2. While a total washout is not expected, daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms exist throughout the extended period.

Discussion:

By Saturday, an upper level cutoff low will be stationed over the
northeast Atlantic seaboard with short-wave ridging in place
locally. A disturbance translating across the northern CONUS and
southern Canada will allow for a relatively weak surface low to
develop and shift across the Ohio Valley through the end of the
weekend into early next week. An approaching front will result in
increasing chances of showers and perhaps a few storms late Saturday
into Sunday. NAM guidance suggest activity may hold off more so
towards Sunday afternoon rather than increase overnight Saturday,
which is more so how coarse long range models suggest. Nonetheless,
increasing chances for unsettled weather this weekend. The good news
is that thermodynamic profiles and the lack of notable upper level
forcing suggest this activity will remain general showers and
storms. The NAM, which is often times the most aggressive with
instability, generally keeps SBCAPE near or less than 1000 J/kg. One
interesting feature with this system is the strengthening H85 flow.
SSW flow approaching 35-45kts may lead to near or low end advisory
criteria in the higher elevations and adjacent foothills of the East
Tennessee mountains. Would like to see if the next suite of hi-
resolution model runs follows trends of the Nam3km so will keep
wording out of the HWO for now.

As we head into the new work week, upper level flow becomes more
quasi-zonal with various disturbances expected to traverse mean flow
aloft. This will allow for daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the week. Specific timing remains rather
reliant on the timing of these disturbances, and as a result, is
uncertain this far out. As noted in previous forecast, ensemble
probabilities for CAPE greater than or equal to 1000 J/kg gradually
ramp up the further we get into the week. Long range guidance
suggest perhaps another frontal passage at the tail end of next week
but the surface low would likely be displaced well to our north.
Overall, the threat for strong to severe storms seems fairly minimal
at this time. Seasonally mild temperatures this weekend will trend
near to slightly above normal for next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

A quiet TAF period ahead with VFR conditions at all sites. Winds
will be light and less than 10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             84  64  81  65 /   0  10  20  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  80  58  81  64 /   0   0  10  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  58  80  63 /   0   0  10  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  51  80  60 /   0   0   0  20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...