-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
085
FXUS62 KRAH 220654
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the
Southeast ahead of a cold front that will approach from the west and
become quasi-stationary from the Middle Atlantic to the lower MS
Valley Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 830 PM Tuesday...

The proverbial "forecast problem of the day" for the evening update
will once again be related to any fog development overnight/early
tomorrow morning. There has been a discernible eastward shift in the
ensemble probabilities for reduced visbys in fog, with the best
chance generally along and east of the I-95 corridor.

Otherwise, tranquil weather and moderating temps will be the theme
over next 36 hours. May see some thin cirrus across the western
counties as a weak upper disturbance moves through the area. Under
mostly clear skies, lows ranging from the mid/upper 50s in the
cooler locations, to lower/mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure will continue to influence much of the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeastern US Wednesday. Some patchy fog/low stratus
in the early morning hours over the Coastal plain region will clear
out by early morning and result in a mostly sunny day. Dry
conditions will continue through the day with light south-southwest
winds. Temperatures will be 6 to 7 degrees above normal with
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, and lows in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 251 AM Wednesday...

Broad troughing across the eastern US will maintain a steady flow of
rich swly moisture transport across central NC through the extended.
Embedded short-wave/MCV features will move over our area triggering
periods of showers and storms each successive day.

At the sfc, an offshore high will pump continuous swly flow across
central NC allowing unstable conditions to flourish each day. Further
upstream, a front will stall west of the Appalachians. As the
aforementioned short-wave energy moves through aloft, expect periods
of showers and storms to develop each day.  Ensembles suggest
periods of stronger shear may be possible Friday (across the south),
Sunday, and again on Monday. As such, the kinematics may be strong
enough to support a few stronger storms these days. The CSU ML model
suggests low-end probabilities for severe weather across our area
each of these days as well. However, we are still a few days out and
details should become more clear as we approach the weekend.  For
now, maintain chance POPs through this period.

With no discernible change in airmass expected, temperatures will
remain above normal in the mid to upper 80s each day of the
extended.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 AM Wednesday...

High pressure centered along the coast of the Carolinas will
continue to favor dry and primarily VFR conditions, and light sly to
sswly surface winds, in cntl NC. The exceptions to VFR will be a
risk of typical visibility fluctuations in radiation fog at RWI
through 11-12Z (ie. variable between LIFR and VFR) and also an area
of low stratus and fog now over sern NC, which may spread to near
and just southeast of FAY-CTZ between 10-12Z.

Outlook: A chance of afternoon-evening showers/storms will exist
Thu afternoon through the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS