-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
160
FXUS61 KRLX 220733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
333 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Unseasonably warm once again today, as high pressure exits.
Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
Thursday. Rain chances through the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 310 AM Wednesday...

High pressure overhead will slide east as the morning progresses.
ASOS sites are indicating the sheltered valleys across the forecast
area have decoupled and will see cooler overnight lows than blended
guidance output. Patchy fog is possible across the river valleys as
well.

A cold front to our west will approach and stall over Ohio later
today and tonight allowing for a chance for some showers and
thunderstorms. There is a slight risk for severe weather
today until Thursday morning; encompassing our NE KY counties,
up through Huntington and Parkersburg. A marginal risk for
severe weather exists elsewhere.

Scattered thunderstorms or showers could pop up anytime this
afternoon, especially during peak heating. A secondary round
comes in the evening and into the overnight hours as the front
gains some steam. A complex of storms, most likely linear in
nature, looks to form to our west before sundown. It will then
move across the forecast area from west to east. Any storms
could have damaging winds or small hail, especially with the
secondary round that will occur closer to sundown and there
after.

Instability parameters across the area are decent: 1,000-2,000
J/kg MLCAPE and MUCAPE, as well as 80-115 J/kg of 0-3kft AGL
CAPE. SE Ohio looks to have the best chance for severe weather
as they will have SBCAPE values of 2,000-2,500 J/kg and be
closer to the front meaning better lift.

Temperatures this afternoon will be above normal once again. 80s
across the lowlands with 70s and 80s in the mountains.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

A cold front will push into the area on Thursday. An upper
level short wave will then cause a wave along the front,
enhancing showers and thunderstorms for Thursday into Thursday
night.

The cold front will stall just south of the area late Thursday
night/Friday morning. An upper level short wave will then
interact with the front and cause a wave to move along the
front Friday afternoon into Saturday. Models continue to
struggle with the strength of the short wave, and hence how far
north the moisture gets and how strong the dynamics are with
this system. The Canadian actually keeps this system completely
south of the area.

A weak cold front will move into the area on Saturday. With the
parent low in southern Canada, very little push and energy is
available for the front in our area, thus not really providing
much cool air.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Models show a system lifting from the midwest on Sunday into
the Great Lakes region on Monday. This will push a warm front
across the area on Sunday, followed by a cold front on Monday.
With systems nearly every day from later today into Monday, am
getting increasingly concerned with the threat for flash
flooding to occur for Sunday and Monday. This will be followed
by an upper level wave on Tuesday in the significantly cooler
air. Models still have differences during the Sunday through
Tuesday time period, but generally agree on the overall
features for the first time in numerous nighttime runs.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 100 AM Wednesday...

Maintaining VFR conditions through the morning, as high
pressure starts to slide east. Winds will be light and
variable farther west and across the higher elevations; going
calm across the mountain and river valleys.

Patchy river valley fog may develop in KEKN and the sheltered
river valleys this morning. Confidence is not strong though as
winds and cloud cover could keep it from forming altogether,
models are not confidence with coverage or timing either. IFR
restrictions could be possible at EKN if it does form.

Clouds will increase and thicken this morning as a cold front
approaches from the west. CIGs will gradually lower as well, but
VFR CIGs will last through much of the day, unless showers or
thunderstorms are around. Winds will pickup out of the SW by
mid-morning, gradually increasing in speed through the day, but
remaining light to breezy at times.

Afternoon showers and storms may develop today as the cold
front nears, but this is mostly of concern for the western
lowlands of WV and SE Ohio until the evening. Allowed VCSH at
CRW, HTS and PKB to cover the chances for showers at these
locations in the afternoon. IFR conditions possible under any
showers and thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog, otherwise High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not develop at KEKN. Timing of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight could vary
from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 05/22/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms
into Thursday with a cold front. IFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night and again on
Sunday.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC