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404
FXUS61 KALY 310545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Clear skies and light winds will yield seasonably cool temperatures
across the region this morning, before moderating through the
day. Nearby surface high pressure will see gusty west to
northwest winds this afternoon, with otherwise continued fair
weather into the weekend. Temperatures will trend above normal
into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Upper ridging and surface high pressure approaching from the
west will bring continued fair weather through tonight. With
light winds beneath clearing skies, much of the region is in for
a cool morning, with areas above 1500 ft elevation starting the
day in the upper 30s, while lower elevation locales begin in the
low to mid 40s. Steep low-level lapse rates up to 800-850 hPa
developing by this afternoon will allow for some stronger west
to northwest winds to mix down to the surface, potentially
gusting as high as 20-25 mph along the Mohawk Valley, across the
Capital District, and in the higher terrain of the eastern
Catskills and Berkshires. Some higher clouds may pass over the
region through the afternoon, with otherwise mostly sunny skies
and temperatures moderating to near normal values, reaching
afternoon highs in the 60s in higher terrain and low to mid 70s
at lower elevations. Another night of largely clear skies and
light winds will again see efficient radiative cooling,
resulting in overnight lows in the 40s for most of the region.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The weekend and the 1st of June begins with great late spring
weather with strong subsidence with the ridge aloft over NY and
New England. H500 heights will be above normal by 1 to 2 STDEVs.
Max temps will rise slightly above normal with a light
northwest breeze and few-sct cirrus with mostly sunny skies.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s below 1000 feet in
elevation and upper 60s to mid 70s generally above it.

A short-wave trough approaches from the west Sat night and de-
amplifies with the ridge holding on over New England. Some
mid/high clouds may increase and it will be slightly warmer than
previous night but very comfortable with lows in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Sunday, a short wave trough approaching from the west is expected
to weaken as it encounters an upper level ridge axis over New
England. There may be enough forcing/moisture to produce isolated to
widely scattered showers, especially for areas west of the Hudson
Valley. It does not look like a washout thought, with dry conditions
likely occurring most of the day. Highs temperatures look to be near
normal, with clouds increasing. A few showers may linger into Sun
evening, but look to be isolated in coverage.

Upper level and surface ridging looks to take control again on
Monday, with dry conditions returning. Temperatures are expected to
warm to above normal levels. Ridging should hold through the middle
of next week, although with a modest increase in moisture and
instability some diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are
possible Tue and Wed. Highs may reach well into the 80s in lower
elevations both days.

The next chance of more widespread convection looks to be on
Thursday, as a potential surface front approaches ahead of an upper
level low moving into the Great Lakes. There is still quite a bit of
spread in the guidance though, so forecast confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 06z/Sat...VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming
TAF period at all sites with just some mid and high clouds at times
as high pressure builds in to the west. The air mass will be dry
enough to prevent any fog formation.

Light to calm winds through the rest of the overnight will become
northwesterly at 10-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt on Friday. Wind
will decrease to less than 10 kt Friday evening.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Today, minimum RH values drop to 30 to 40% in the afternoon
while gusty west-northwest winds may reach 20 mph. Fire weather
concerns nonetheless remain low as substantial rainfall has been
observed across the region within the past 5 days.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...Main/Picard