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133
FXUS61 KRLX 201507
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1107 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A high pressure system will provide hot and mostly dry weather
into midweek. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances linger into late week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1045 AM Monday...

No major changes needed with the mid-morning update. Did expand
patchy valley fog chances a bit for tonight, given expectation
of clear skies and mostly calm winds. Kept with the idea of a
few stray mountain showers or t-storms this afternoon or
evening, as most of the hi-res CAM guidance shows a few cells
popping up.


As of 550 AM Monday...

The forecast remains on track. GOES-16 Microphysics shows patchy
river valley fog across the area with some low stratus across
portions of Pocahontas County and down into the VA mountains.
Still have some chances for some isolated showers or a
thunderstorm across the mountains later this afternoon. Any
rainfall that occurs with these will enhance another round of
valley fog tonight.

As of 200 AM Monday...

Large bubble of strong high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard
under a stout mid-level ridge keeping us dry for the near-term.
Expecting river valley fog to materialize due to the region
decoupling. Fog could be dense in spots, particularly for the
most sheltered valleys with poor drainage winds.

Fog will lift and dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning,
giving way to mostly clear skies, until afternoon when scattered
cumulus dot the sky with peak heating. Temperatures are
expected to be above normal today with upper 80s across portions
of the lowlands, some of the usual hot spots may even see 90
degrees.

There is a chance or an isolated shower or thunderstorm across
the mountains this afternoon. This activity may spawn from peak
heating and converging flow along the higher elevations from a
weak trough within the ridge pattern. Anything that does form
will not maintain longevity with weak surface flow installed
across the area with this strong high pressure system.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Monday...

A high pressure system will provide for mostly dry weather on
Tuesday, although a couple of afternoon showers or
thunderstorms can not be ruled out in the northern and central
West Virginia mountains. Afternoon temperatures will be well
above normal for this time of year, with some lowland locations
hitting 90 degrees.

The warm weather will continue on Wednesday. A southerly wind
in advance of the next system will increase moisture across the
area Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will allow for an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.

A cold front will then push through the area on Thursday,
providing additional showers and thunderstorms along with more
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 AM Monday...

A cold front will stall just south of the area on Friday. An
upper level short wave will then interact with the front and
cause a surface wave to move along the front. Models do have
some differences in the timing and location of wave, leading to
a lower confidence in forecast details. Confidence in the
forecast drops even more on Sunday, as model solutions further
diverge.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 640 AM Monday...

VFR conditions will resume for today after fog lifts and
dissipates this morning. Restrictions could still occur at these
sites between ~12-1230Z as it lifts, but allowed an IFR/LIFR
tempo group at each due to the patchiness of the fog.

Widespread VFR expected today once fog lifts. Skies will be
speckled with CU fields this afternoon due to diurnal heating.
There is a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm across
the mountains this afternoon. BKW is the closest site that may
see a shower later, but nothing certain at this time.

Another round of patchy valley fog is possible tonight,
especially along the mountains if any rainfall occurs.

Surface flow will remain calm through the morning. Light and
variable surface flow is expected at all sites by afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR could vary
from forecast with VCFG at EKN and CRW. Showers or thunderstorms
end up being more widespread this afternoon and evening across
the mountains.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible with river valley fog or low stratus
Tuesday morning, then again with showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...FK/LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC