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527
FXUS61 KRLX 190651
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
251 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A chance of some showers/thunderstorms in the mountains this
afternoon, otherwise a high pressure system provides dry
weather through Tuesday. Hot temperatures expected this week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Sunday...

After some patchy dense early morning fog burns off, expect a
lot of sunshine today. Models showing a ridge building in aloft
today and tonight. Even so, some models are showing enough
leftover moisture for some showers or thunderstorms in the
mountains this afternoon. With precipitable water values under
an inch, not anticipating any water issues. With the ridge
building, temperatures this afternoon are expected to be warmer
than on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM Sunday...

Dry weather with a warming trend will be the theme for the short
term, with a broad high pressure center and 500MB ridge over
the area Monday and Tuesday. There remains a remote chance for
a diurnal shower or thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon across the
mountains and SE Ohio as a shortwave moves through. Otherwise,
mostly quiet across the region to start the week.

Temperatures will be above normal starting Monday into the
long- term period, with upper 80s to near 90 across the lowlands
both days. Temperatures could trend a bit higher if the high
pressure center moves overhead, but so far all the models are
keeping it to our east over VA. Still, if temperatures reach 90F
or higher sensitive individuals should take precautions to
prevent heat-related illness.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Sunday...

For Wednesday into Thursday, a broad upper-low will spin up over the
upper Midwest and move over Ontario, Canada/UP Michigan as our ridge
of high pressure exits. The pattern will become more active once
this happens, as a few shortwave troughs will eject into the region
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Subsequently, precipitation
chances increase from west to east by Wednesday afternoon with
thunderstorms looking possible into the night, especially with
the hot temperatures expected Wednesday afternoon.

The previously mentioned low will push a cold front through on
Thursday. Precipitation chances will remain across the area as
a result, but temperatures will be cooler by about 6 to 10
degrees. The lowlands will see temperatures in the upper 70s and
lower 80s; the mountains will stay in the 60s to upper 70s. A
southern stream system looks to move up from the Deep South
Friday into Saturday, so kept precipitation chances in the
forecast for now.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1245 AM Sunday...

Patchy dense fog will be forming early this morning. After the
fog burns off, expect a cumulus deck today. This deck could
provide some MVFR conditions late this morning, mainly over the
mountains. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms over
the mountains this afternoon, but areas west of the mountains
will be dry with VFR conditions.

VFR conditions can be expected areawide Sunday evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog formation early this morning
could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 05/19/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    M    M    L    L    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR in fog possible overnight Sunday night into early Monday
morning, mainly in the mountain valleys.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...RPY