905
FXUS63 KAPX 241333
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
933 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening/
  tonight.

- Rain likely Sunday night, showers continue into Memorial Day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

A bit of cirrus out there, especially in the south, but
otherwise quiet this morning as we ramp up into the holiday
weekend. A skinny ridge of high pressure over eastern MI is
contributing to dry air at the low and mid levels. However,
return flow is substantial w of Lake MI. All sorts of convection
is seen out that way, especially in western WI and nw IL.
Return flow aloft does start to work in here, but we have plenty
of antecedent dry air to overcome. An initial push of showers
toward nw lower MI from mid-afternoon onward should struggle
mightily. Some small pops could be needed in our western areas
before 8pm, but most precip will be after that.

SPC has removed the MBL area from a marginal svr risk
today/tonight.

The morning has also started cool, though temps are quickly
zipping into and thru the 50s. An easterly synoptic wind
develops later today, as the ridge departs. That will keep max
temps very near Lk Huron in the 60s. But everywhere else, 70s
to low 80s (warmest in nw lower MI) will work.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level heights are currently
rising across the western Great Lakes with a ridge axis progged to
be centered squarely overhead by early afternoon. Attendant surface
high pressure to follow suit today. All of this in advance of low
pressure spinning well upstream across the Dakotas today into
Manitoba tonight, eventually shoving high pressure east and dragging
a warm and cold front/triple point across northern Michigan and a
return of more active weather after sunset.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated
during the daylight hours today with lots of sunshine giving way to
increasing high clouds this afternoon. Mild temperatures again today
spanning the 70s and low 80s with generally light southerly winds
and afternoon lake breeze development.

By mid-late this afternoon, expecting a convective complex over WI
to be making headway across central and northern Lake Michigan,
albeit in quickly decaying fashion. Not expecting much of this
initial activity to make it into northwest lower -- perhaps scraping
the Manistee, Benzie, Leelanau shoreline, if anything at all. Better
shower chances spread from southwest to northeast after 00z as
warm/moist advection really ramps up evidenced by PWs progged to
balloon to over 1.25" across the forecast area. Lowering/thickening
clouds and increasing PoPs the rule this evening into the overnight
hours with latest trends favoring 0.25 - 0.50" QPF near and west of
Grand Traverse Bay to around a tenth to a quarter of an inch near
and east of US-131. Suppose some embedded thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out as well given upwards of 500 J/kg elevated instability
folding into the region -- even some small hail not entirely off the
table as well. That said, the primary severe weather threat looks to
remain removed from northern Michigan today/tonight with the main
focus across southern WI/northern IL this afternoon, perhaps
extending into southwest lower Michigan this evening...all tied to
better instability than what we`ll be able to muster locally.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Frontal boundary associated with low pressure system across N Plains
will clear the region on Saturday ending any lingering precip
chances. Brief high pressure early on Sunday, then a mess of energy
swirls around the Great Lakes as a sfc low lifts into Lake
Michigan/vicinity Sunday night into Monday. Another fast moving
upper low swings down into Michigan during the middle portions of
next week with some showers possible.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Showers diminish on Saturday morning across much of the area, but
may linger east of I-75 esp across the Lake Huron coast as a frontal
boundary clears N MI. Next system approaches as a mess of upper
level energy and a subsequent sfc low later Sunday into Monday.
Maybe some minor instability, but nothing substantial in the latest
guidance so largely thinking rain showers and possible embedded
thunderstorms but will monitor this closely. Still a bit of
uncertainty in this systems track but guidance (looking at ENS in
particular but globals suggest this as well) is trying to hone in on
a western sfc low track but this will ultimately depend on how a
lead compact closed low/short wave progresses and interacts with the
other messiness in the mid levels of the atmosphere. As of now, it
does look like the steadiest rains will be Sunday night with showers
remaining on Monday. Winds increase as well later Sunday into
Monday. Despite the exact details, the weather will not be all that
great for the holiday. Unsettled weather is possible into mid week
with breezy conditions expected to continue. Another piece of
energy, vigorous but likely moisture starved, swings down from
Canada sometime mid next week (later Tues into early Wed likely)
with another chance for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR through the daylight hours today with increasing high clouds.
Trends support thickening/lowering clouds along with associated
increasing rain chances this evening/tonight. Probability for MVFR
CIGs increases during this timeframe. Southerly breezes today with
afternoon lake breeze development expected on both Lake Michigan/
Huron coasts. Southeast winds tonight with a bit of gustiness at
times.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MJG