448
FXUS65 KBOU 040936
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
336 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy, dry, and a little cooler today.

- Summer heat through the rest of this week, with a few 90 degree
  readings over the plains, with Friday the hottest day.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms this upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

An upper level disturbance is exiting to the east early this
morning, taking with it the high based showers that produced some
gusty microburst winds last night.

Subsidence and stronger northwest flow will be left in it`s wake,
along with potential for mountain wave enhancement near the Front
Range as the stable layer approaches mountain top. The combination
of the above factors will bring breezy to windy conditions to the
forecast area today, with the strongest gusts in the mountains,
foothills, and near the Wyoming border. Gusts around 40 mph can be
expected in those areas, with a few wind prone spots in the
terrain hitting 50+. The rest of the forecast area including the
Denver metro area and most of the plains east and southeast of
Denver will see gusts closer to 25-30 mph late this morning
through the afternoon. Those winds will weaken this evening with
the loss of mixing.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with post-trough but
weak cold advection aloft. We`ll see highs mostly in the lower to
mid 80s across the plains. For tonight, clearing skies and
lighter winds should allow modest inversions to develop, with lows
in the 50s across the plains, 40s foothills, and 30s mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Ensemble guidance shows a consensus of an upper level ridge over the
region for much of the extended period. Wednesday will be quite warm
and dry aided by downslope flow and warm 700mb temperatures. Highs
range in the upper 80s to low 90s across the plains and urban
corridor. A weak backdoor front may potentially push far enough west
to keep it a few degrees cooler on Thursday. Thursday will be mainly
dry. Kept in low chances (< 20%)for a few showers/storms south of I-
70 with very marginal instability and moisture about.

Friday and into the weekend, the ridge shifts more east over
Colorado. Friday is likely to be the warmest day of the period
supported by a couple more degrees of warming in the 700mb
temperatures. This will likely set up the I-25 corridor and most of
the plains in the low 90s. Ensembles show a signal for anomalous
moisture advecting into the region for Friday and through the
weekend. Within this timeframe, a few weak shortwave troughs move
through the northwesterly flow aloft bringing periods of weak
synoptic ascent. Cooling aloft will help bring more instability to
promote showers and thunderstorms. This will also in response
bring slightly cooler high temperatures to the region (80s for the
lower elevations). The cooler and more unsettled pattern likely
continues into early next week with afternoon showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1157 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR through Tuesday. The main threat of microburst winds passed
between 03Z and 04Z, although there`s still a low risk (20%
chance) of shifting winds with the main shot of virga still coming
across the Front Range until 09Z-10Z. Otherwise, north/northwest
winds should prevail until then, with gusts up to 20 knots. After
10Z, the trough axis passes which means clearing skies and winds
attempting to settle to normal southwesterlies.

West/northwest winds are then expected to develop and increase
15Z-18Z, with gusts averaging around 25 kts through most of the
afternoon, but a few gusts to 30 kts possible. Winds then
decrease 00Z-03Z before turning to south/southwest winds 03Z-06Z.
Mid and upper level clouds will also be clearing.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Alpine snowmelt will increase runoff the next several days with
the arrival of summer heat. Hydrologic forecasts show a few
segments of the upper Colorado and Fraser Rivers getting to or
near action stage this week, which means flows will be high and
fast but flooding threat limited. Please use caution and respect
these fast moving and cold flows in the high country.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
HYDROLOGY...Mensch