023
FXXX12 KWNP 241231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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#             Forecast Discussion
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Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels. Five R1 (Minor) events were
observed during the last 24 hours. The largest was an M2.5 flare at
23/1320 UTC from Region 3679 (S09W73). Penumbral growth was observed in
its intermediate spots over the past 24 hours. Region 3690 (N17E68,
Hsx/alpha) was numbered near the NE limb. The remaining spotted regions
on the visible disk exhibited only minor changes.

Three filament eruptions were observed. The first was a long N-S
oriented feature centered near S40E60 that began erupting at the
beginning of the UT day. The resulting CME was model and did not contain
an Earth-directed component. The second was centered near S35E20 and
began erupting after 23/0600 UTC. The third filament, centered near
S15E05, began erupting ~23/0640 UTC. The latter two filament eruptions
both produced CMEs that were analyzed and modeled. While the bulk of the
ejecta was primarily moving south of Sun-Earth line, influence from the
periphery of the CME may be observed at Earth late on 26 May. No other
potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on 24-25 May, with a slight
chance of X-class flares (R3/Strong) due primarily to the flare
potential of Region 3679. A decrease to low level is likely on 26 May as
Region 3679 rotates around the W limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to
moderate levels over 24-26 May. There is a slight chance for an S1
(Minor) or greater solar radiation storm due to the potential from
Region 3679 over 24-25 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The IMF of the solar wind was mildly enhanced, possibly due to the onset
of a CIR ahead of an anticipated negative polarity CH HSS. Total
magnetic field strength reached 9 nT and the Bz component rotated as far
south as 9 nT. Solar wind speeds remained relatively steady at ~375
km/s. Phi angle was positive early, then switched to a negative
orientation for the latter half of the period.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind parameters are likely over the next three
days due to coronal hole influence. Additional enhancements are possible
on 26 May due to periphery of a passing CME that left the Sun on 23 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on
24-26 May due primarily to anticipated CH HSS effects.