996
AXPZ20 KNHC 302032
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu May 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W moving west at 10 to 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 90 nm of the
tropical wave axis from 07N to 10N. Some slow development of
this system is possible through the weekend and early next week
while it moves slowly westward well to the south of the coast of
Mexico. There is a low probability of tropical cyclobe
development.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N99W to 09N113W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N113W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 82W and
95W, and from 04N to 09N between 125W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough
over north central Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh
winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle
winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas
are in the 6-9 ft range off Baja California Norte, and 6 ft off
Baja California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico,
seas are in the 4-5 ft range. Seas of 3 ft or less are found over
the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions persist off southern
Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural
fires over southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may
decrease at times to 3 nm or less.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
off the Baja California peninsula through early next week.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open
waters. Seas will build to 9 ft in long period NW swell off of
Baja California Norte tonight through Mon. Hazy conditions may
persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central America.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo
region. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon
trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough.
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the Gulf of Papagayo, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere. Hazy conditions continue off the Central American
coast due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central
America. Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E gap winds are expected across
the Papagayo region through early Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail for the next several days. Hazy skies
from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central
America may reduce visibilities over portions of the Central
American offshore waters the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to
near 20N and W of 120W. Northerly swell is bringing seas of 8-9
ft to the waters N of 28N between 120W and 125W. Moderate winds,
and seas of 5-6 ft, are elsewhere N of 20N. Gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected to the current
conditions over much of the area the next few days.

$$
AL