Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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794 FXUS64 KEPZ 261132 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 532 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 125 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 It will be very warm and very dry for the week ahead with afternoon breezes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 The UL trough responsible for yesterday`s wind, dust, and extreme fire conditions will continue to depart the region throughout the day today. We`ll still largely be on the back-side of the trough, so eastern portions of the CWA will still be a bit on the breezy side, nothing like seen yesterday though. Ridging builds in its wake with the axis aligned roughly over us before it slowly translates eastward by Wednesday. Temperatures will warm as a result with mild afternoon breezes. Each afternoon Monday onward El Paso will have a shot at seeing its first 100 degree day. A minor trough passage tries to push through sometime Friday but with little impact except maybe a minor uptick in winds. Looking beyond the forecast package both the GFS and Euro show ridging beginning to dominate, much typical of June. It is not a matter of if but when our expected summer heat truly begins. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW250. Winds will top out around 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Direction will mainly be from the west (260-280) except at TCS, 180. Winds will subside again after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 125 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Fire conditions are expected to be much quieter going forward albeit extremely dry. Afternoon min RH values are still expected to drop well into the single digits. Winds will top out around 15 MPH this afternoon with a bit stronger winds expected over the higher elevations of Hudspeth County. Conditions look to be near or marginally critical for a few hours there. Tomorrow onward, winds will top out around 10-15 MPH each afternoon. Thus, elevated fire conditions will continue each day for the foreseeable future. Venting for the period will be very good to excellent throughout the period. Smoke from the Blue 2 fire is expected to move toward the southeast through this morning before heading due east. It is expected to start moving toward the east-northeast to northeast for Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 93 65 98 67 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 88 60 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 92 58 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 88 56 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 65 45 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 89 58 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 80 53 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 90 53 95 54 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 88 54 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 90 63 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 92 53 98 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 94 58 100 61 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 84 60 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 93 59 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 89 55 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 90 65 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 89 54 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 92 54 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 90 58 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 88 58 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 78 50 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 75 48 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 75 47 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 82 50 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 88 56 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 89 52 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 82 47 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 84 50 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 88 52 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 83 54 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 84 54 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 88 53 93 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 89 54 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 89 55 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 84 56 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown