Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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133 FXUS63 KFGF 242330 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 630 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds in southeastern North Dakota have picked up into the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts up to 45 mph, issued a wind advisory for Barnes, Ransom, Sargent, through 7 PM. - Some snow has been falling in our far northwestern counties. While clouds tonight will not clear to bring classic frost development, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s. - Additional scattered showers into the holiday weekend, but widespread rain has already impacted area rivers. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Upper low continues to rotate over the forecast area and has produced some convection. A few cold core upper low funnels and one confirmed tornado have been confirmed as of this writing, but should see instability decrease rapidly after 22Z and CAMs all have cells diminishing before sunset. Winds will also decrease around 00Z as the pressure gradient relaxes and the core of pressure rises and cold air advection moves off to the east. Wind advisory for our far southwestern counties should be coming down by this evening. The weakening showers will join the rain that has been soaking the northern counties this afternoon, with some snow flakes continuing to mix in across far northwestern portions of the CWA. At this point think travel impacts will be minimal for winter, but plenty of cold temperatures to work with as cold air advection continues. Even with not much clearing until close to morning, readings in the upper Devils Lake Basin are already in the mid 30s. Expect the 30s to spread south and east into tonight, just a question of how far. Continued winds and clouds will not bring the classic frost formation on the ground, but temps will drop down into the 33 to 36 range across portions of northeastern ND into northwestern MN. Put out a frost advisory for late tonight into tomorrow morning. West then northwesterly sets up as the upper low exits off into Canada, but some weak shortwaves could bring some periodic shower and thunderstorm chances, particularly with decent ensemble agreement on a stronger shortwave Sunday night into Monday. Ridge building in for Wednesday/Thursday, then southwest flow and a more active pattern returns for Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 IFR to MVFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites this evening. Scattered showers continue to bring visibility down occasionally into the 2-3SM range, with ceilings falling to just under 1500 feet. Outside of showers, MVFR conditions prevail, which should remain the case through much of the evening and into the early overnight period. Gusty winds will remain elevated through the rest of the evening before tapering off overnight. Heading into the late overnight hours and into Saturday morning, shower activity is expected to diminish, with remnant low ceilings through around sunrise. Slow improvement is expected through the remainder of the morning hours on Saturday, with VFR conditions expected to return to most sites around midday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-054. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ038-049-052. MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ001-004- 005-007-008-013>015. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Lynch