200
FXUS63 KGID 211705
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1205 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms early this morning may produce large hail,
  damaging winds, and flash flooding. There is a low tornado
  threat.

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch and a Flood Watch are in effect
  for much of the area.

- Additional storm development is expected later this morning
  into early this afternoon. These storms may become strong to
  severe.

- There is a marginal threat of severe weather on Thursday
  across the whole forecast area.

- High temperatures will range from the low 60s to mid 80s. Low
  temperatures will range from the low 40s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper level trough is over the western part of the country with
the leading edge of the trough over the Plains. Upper lift is
enhanced over Nebraska and Kansas due to the upper trough. A cold
front associated with the upper trough is pushing southward across
Nebraska into northern Kansas. Wind shear, CAPE values, and mid-
level lapse rates are fairly high across the area. Thunderstorms are
currently moving across portions of south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. These storms are expected to
continue across most of the forecast area through the overnight
period. The main threats with these storms are damaging winds, large
hail, and flash flooding. There is a low tornado threat. These
storms should be on the eastern edge of the forecast area by
sunrise. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of south
central and central Nebraska and Phillips and Smith Counties in
north central Kansas until 7 AM this morning. A Flood Watch is in
effect for central and much of south central Nebraska until 1 PM
this afternoon. Additional storm development is possible across the
forecast area around mid morning to early afternoon. These storms
may become strong to severe depending on the environment left behind
from the storms that are currently affecting the area. High
temperatures today are expected to range from the low 60s to upper
70s. Winds behind the cold front today are expected to be gusty out
of the northwest. Winds will weaken this evening into tonight and
become more westerly. There is a lingering chance (up to 25%) of
showers and thunderstorms tonight across mainly north central
Kansas. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s to
mid 50s.

Wednesday through Thursday night...

The previously mentioned upper trough will have lifted to the
northeast of the area on Wednesday with another upper trough
centered over the Pacific Northwest. This will result in mostly dry
conditions across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas for most of the day on Wednesday. High temperatures
on Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 70s with mostly sunny to
sunny skies and fairly light winds. Winds will be out of the south
Wednesday evening and night with a 15% to 35% chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the western half of the area. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The upper
trough over the Pacific Northwest will move further east on
Thursday. An upper level disturbance/shortwave will move over the
area on Thursday. The GFS is showing fairly high CAPE, wind shear,
and mid-level lapse rates for Thursday afternoon and evening so some
storms may be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has the
whole forecast area in a marginal risk of severe weather for
Thursday. High temperatures for Thursday will be in the upper 70s to
mid 80s with mostly sunny skies. The previously mentioned upper
trough will begin to move over the central and northern Plains
Thursday night with a cold front moving into south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Low temperatures Thursday
night will range from the mid 40s to near 60 degrees. Rain and storm
chances will increase to near 75% for portions of the area Thursday
night.

Friday through Monday night...

Northerly winds will continue across the area on Friday with high
temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures Friday
night will range from the low 40s to low 50s. Winds will become
southeasterly on Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A
shortwave trough is expected to move over the central Plains
Saturday night with rain and storm chances (up to around 35%)
increasing across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas. Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to mid
50s. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 70s to
lower 80s. An upper trough will begin moving over the central and
northern Plains on Sunday. This will allow for continued rain and
storm chances (up to around 40%) for Sunday and Sunday night. Low
temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. An
upper low/trough will be centered over the central Plains on Monday
with a cold front moving into the area. Rain and storm chances (up
to 30%) will continue Monday and Monday night. High temperatures on
Monday will be in the 70s with low temperatures Monday night in the
mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The EAR AWOS is OTS as of this TAF writing, so will carry AMD
NOT SKED for the EAR TAF. Over the next few hours expect -SHRA,
I am thinking the -TSRA chances are diminishing, so will drop
VCTS mention at this time. The winds will be gusty this
afternoon with gusts into the upper 20s to the low 30s. The
winds will taper off this evening and become more westerly.
Clouds are expected to move off by mid-morning tomorrow.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>084.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Beda