018
FXUS65 KGJT 250741
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
141 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The potential for showers and storms increases today before
  dissipating later this evening. Gusty winds will be possible
  with these  showers and storms.

- Mountain snow is possible generally above 9 kft with the
  impacts to the roads occurring tonight. Highest chances for
  upwards of several inches of snow will be in the northern and
  central mountains.

- Temperatures will run below normal through the weekend then increase
  next week. Precipitation chances remain low through mid week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

A trough is approaching from the west and is due to track overhead
this afternoon. Ahead of the system, moisture has resulted in
high- based showers near the Wyoming state line. Rainfall is
having trouble reaching the ground under these showers due to
low-level dry air. This band of showers will lift north of the
area later this morning, but still hold in place over the
Uintas. Showers and storms are expected to develop ahead of the
trough and weak cold front during peak heating over the high
terrain. The trough enters northeast Utah in the early afternoon
and is expected to progress southeastward through the evening.
The main focus for lift appears to be along this front. The
instability may support storms capable of producing small hail
mainly north of I-70, which is where the highest cape is
expected. Also, in general winds this afternoon increase across
most locations. Any showers and storms that form today could
produce 40-50 mph winds. By late evening the trough axis crosses
the Divide and showers should begin to dissipate. Some residual
moisture and westerly flow may keep orographic precip going
into the night along the Divide. Snow levels will range 8-10 kft
and it appears accumulation will be possible above these
elevations. The highest QPF is across the northern third of the
forecast area with the highest values in the Park Range. Several
inches of snow is expected, but impacts on the roads should be
minimal. The cold front that rolls through keeps high
temperatures very similar to today with maybe a slight increase
by a few degrees. This is due to a ridge that begins to build
over the Great Basin allowing for warm advection. Models are
trying to develop isolated showers over the northern mountains
tomorrow afternoon. Not much is expected from these potential
showers. Elsewhere should be partly cloudy to mostly sunny.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Ridging continues to build in over the region Sunday night and
will begin a period of sunny skies and warmer temperatures.
Despite the ridging, some instability will occur over the
mountains along the Continental Divide each afternoon so a
chance does exist for some convection there. These chances range
from 20 to 40% so it`s safer to say that there`s a higher
chance that convection won`t form. Potato, Potaato. By Tuesday,
the ridging will have shifted east as a wave moves over the CWA.
With minimal moisture or dynamical support, any rain hitting
the ground still looks iffy. Friday, models are suggesting the
tail end of a cold front dropping down into northern portions of
the CWA, bringing increasing chances for some rain and a few
storms. This far out, confidence remains low but we`ll keep an
eye on how this will develop.

One thing that will happen, and has been consistent in all model
runs for the last few days, is increasing daytime highs. The warmup
begins Monday and continues through Friday. Wednesday looks to
be the warmest day as the northern valleys see temps reach the
upper 70s/low 80s. The Grand Valley will likely hit 90F while
Moab and the rest of SE Utah hits the mid 90s. You folks down in
Cortez, Durango and Pagosa Springs will see temps in the mid to
high 80s. Along with the higher temps, the usual afternoon
breezes of 20 to 25 mph will be common as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Showers will linger over eastern Utah over the next 24 hours
with possible ILS conditions and a low probability of MVFR at
KVEL by the afternoon. Winds will increase aloft leading to some
areas of LLWS and mountain wave turbulence. These winds mix
down tomorrow and will bring more widespread 35 to 40 mph winds
with higher gusts possible near showers through the afternoon.
Showers and storms expand in coverage this afternoon and
continue that through late evening.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT