622
FXUS63 KGLD 312000
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern continues through the weekend as weather
  systems moves through during the late afternoon through
  overnight hours from west to east. Severe weather and locally
  excessive rainfall threats continue.

- A less active weather pattern develops Monday through Friday
  with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and for some
  90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Tonight...similar to the past few days, showers/thunderstorms are
anticipated to move along the Palmer Divide into parts of Yuma, Kit
Carson counties between 5-6 PM MDT, potentially splitting into two
clusters (one north of I-70 with the more dominant cluster south of
I-70) through 9 PM MDT before dissipating some after midnight
although 20% pops continue east of Highway 26 through 3 AM MDT. The
severe weather threats look similar to yesterday with large hail,
gusty winds and locally excessive rainfall the primary threats.
Those who received heavy rainfall the past 24-72 hours would have a
heightened threat for flooding/flash flooding. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the lower to middle 50s.

Saturday-Saturday night...another round of showers and thunderstorms
are forecast to move across the area from west to east from very
late in the afternoon through the overnight hours. Similar to the
past several days, the primary hazards will be large hail, damaging
wind gusts and locally excessive rainfall. High temperatures rise
into the upper 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the lower
50s to around 60.

Sunday-Sunday night...a weak weather disturbance embedded within a
subtle 500mb trough moves across the area supporting 20%-40% chances
for showers and thunderstorms during the typical afternoon through
overnight hours. High temperatures rise into the upper 80s to around
90 with low temperatures in the lower 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Tuesday...there may be a few thunderstorms generally east of Highway
25 otherwise dry weather is expected. High temperatures remain in
the middle 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the 50s.

Wednesday...dry weather is currently forecast as upper level ridging
builds over the area from the west. High temperatures remain in the
middle to upper 80s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to
around 60.

Thursday...this mornings guidance is advertising 20% chances for
showers/thunderstorms overnight, possibly tied to a passing mid
level disturbance within northwest flow aloft and increasing
moisture in the 700-500mb layer. High temperatures are forecast to
be in the middle to upper 80s with low temperatures in the 55 to 60
degree range.

Friday...there is a 20% chance for showers/thunderstorms overnight
as another weather system moves through from the northwest. High
temperatures remain in the middle 80s with low temperatures in the
middle to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are currently forecast through the period.
A light east to southeast wind at taf issuance will continue
through the afternoon, becoming established from the southeast
up to 10kts tonight. Winds then become a bit more southerly near
sunrise and continue through the rest of the period, slowly
increasing toward 12kts. There is another chance for
showers/thunderstorms to be near/over the terminal in the
02z-04z timeframe. Will be watching the period from taf issuance
through about 21z as cigs may flirt with MVFR category.

KMCK...sub VFR cigs are possible from taf issuance through the
afternoon with a light and variable wind. These light and
variable winds continue through Saturday morning before
establishing a southeasterly direction at speeds around 10kts.
Presently, showers and thunderstorms are not forecast to be
near/over the terminal.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Still have concerns with flooding through the weekend. Multiple
advisories and a few warnings were sent out last night as most
of the area received another 1 to 4 inches of rain. Compounding
this with the multiple inches of rain received the prior days
have left parts of the area with 50-75% soil saturation, leaving
them more prone to flooding.

The potential help the next few days is that the forecast
soundings have downshear vectors around 40-45 kts which is much
faster than the previous days and would require more efficient
storms to produce more than two inches. Will have to watch for
storms clustering and training over areas as this would offset
the faster motion. So far the chances aren`t watch worthy, but
the flooding threat continues.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...