316
FXUS64 KHUN 021134
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
634 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Early morning radar imagery shows scattered showers over the
forecast area with a few thunderstorms located just to our south.
Expect this activity to continue pushing east during the morning
hours as synoptic lift and moisture decrease slightly today. The
upper trough axis will continue to shift northeast of the area and
sfc high pressure will track over the Great Lakes and into the
Ohio Valley. Will maintain a low chance (20-30%) for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, but expect coverage to be limited
and rainfall amounts to be lighter than we saw yesterday. With
skies clearing this afternoon, do expect highs to rise into the
lower 80s with light southerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The main focus tonight will be on fog, as clearing skies and
light winds combined with wet near sfc soils will be favorable for
at least patchy dense fog. Will have to monitor conditions
closely later this evening and overnight as a Dense Fog Advisory
may be needed. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s before
we begin on a warming trend as upper ridging moves into the area.
High pressure will remain dominant over the area on Monday,
keeping the forecast dry with afternoon highs in the upper 80s.
Southwest H85 flow will help advect a moist and warm sectored
airmass into the area, Monday night and a series of upper
disturbances will bring rain and thunder chances back into the
forecast Tuesday afternoon. Will have to keep our eyes out for
localized flooding during this timeframe as well, as PWATs climb
back near 1.8" and will make for efficient rainfall producers.
Some questions still remain on how much synoptic lift will be in
place to support more than scattered coverage, so have stuck with
blended guidance and a 30-50% PoP Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Low rain/thunder chances will linger overnight Tuesday, with low
temperatures near 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Heading into mid week, a deepening upper level low riding along the
U.S. and Canadian border just NW of the Great Lakes will run into a
blocking pattern. The associated sfc low will have a cold front that
extends down the MS Valley. A shortwave will swing through before
the cold front does, providing medium chances (40-60%) Wednesday
morning, and coverage increases to high chances (60-70%) in the
afternoon ahead of the front. Showers and storms will linger into
Thursday, lesser in coverage though, until the front itself passes
through. Forecast soundings show pockets of instability but weak
shear with PWAT forecasts up to 1.8-1.9" (75th percentile or higher).
At this time, hazards are heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Will note
that WPC has the TN Valley in a Marginal ERO again on Wednesday, so
will watch for flooding potential.

Behind the front, cooler and drier air will filter in, decreasing
cloud cover and dewpoints. Temps will only be a tad cooler, with
highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the lower 60s at night both
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east this morning,
clearing the area by later this afternoon. Amendments may be
needed if these showers track over KHSV, but coverage should be
limited. VFR conditions with light and variable winds are expected
to return this morning as cloud cover thins throughout the day.
Fog is expected during the overnight hours but confidence is too
low to include in TAFs at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25