Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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898 FXUS63 KILX 271702 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1202 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms (20-30% chance) will pose a threat of gusty winds this afternoon into the evening, primarily between 4 PM and 9 PM. There is a level 1 of 5 risk of damaging winds. - Tuesday afternoon/evening will also feature scattered storms capable of gusty winds (20% chance), mainly north of I-74. - High pressure takes control for the latter half of the week, with dry weather Wednesday through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1013 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Late morning water vapor imagery showed a shortwave over southwest MN, which was producing scattered showers and storms as far southeast a central IA. This system will track southeast today, with scattered storms (20-30% coverage) affecting most of our counties north of I-70 from 2-10 pm. Deep mixing above 850 mb should trend afternoon dewpoints down to the lower 50s or even upper 40s. However, steep mid level lapse rates will contribute to weak instability (near 500 J/kg SBCAPE), and given inverted-v soundings, gusty winds under the showers/storms will be seen. Given marginal deep layer shear around 30 kt and the weak instability feel most gusts will be below severe levels, but a few of the stronger updrafts could result in low end severe gusts, and much of the area is in a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather today. Aside from the storms, west-northwest winds will gust 25-30 mph in a tight MSLP gradient on the back side of low pressure over Lake Huron. As the low departs and ridging moves in from the west, gusts will quickly diminish this evening. Highs will be seasonable, in the mid/upper 70s. 25 && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Early Monday morning, sfc low pressure was positioned over the Great Lakes region, with an attendant cold front extending through north- central IN into east-central IL. As of 2am/07z the front had moved past a Danville to Taylorville line, but had not yet reached Paris- to-Effingham. A few spotty showers have developed near and just ahead of the front, so kept some low chance PoPs during the first few hours of the forecast period. These showers should be east of the area by daybreak today. Today, central IL will be in the post-frontal airmass, which will feature persistent northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph. A digging shortwave will approach from the northwest by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered showers/storms. Instability progs are rather weak, less than 750 J/kg, but forecast soundings have consistently shown a deep- inverted V profile beneath the cloud bases, which are expected to be over 4000 feet. Efficient evaporative cooling beneath these cloud bases could lead to sporadic strong downdrafts capable of producing strong wind gusts. This assessment is supported by high- res guidance, as the 27.00z HREF indicates a 20-40% chance of gusts over 45 mph with these storms. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for damaging winds. Other severe hazards (hail, tornadoes) are not expected. Radar estimates suggest that nearly all of the CWA has received at least a half inch of rain since Friday, and a majority of the CWA has received over 1". That will hopefully stymie any blowing dust concerns with these gusty thunderstorms. Erwin .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Tuesday looks fairly similar to Monday, with continued cyclonic (northwesterly) flow and another shortwave approaching during the afternoon which could kick off more showers/storms, mainly north of I-74 (20% chance). Forecast soundings for Tuesday show similar signatures to Monday, so gusty winds will once again be possible with any storms that form. Conditions are looking quite enjoyable Wed thru Fri as upper level ridging set up over the central Plains, resulting in strengthening, broad sfc high pressure over the Upper Midwest/Ontario. These features will gradually shift east during the latter half of the week, but will provide mostly dry weather Wednesday-Friday while temperatures steadily warm each day. By Fri, highs return to near normal, around 80F. Dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s will make it feel quite refreshing. Into the weekend, the upper ridge shifts east while a trough approaches from the west, returning precip to the forecast Sat- Sun. Early indications are that the severe weather potential with this system is quite low, owing to limited moisture return. Erwin && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 West-northwest winds gusting up to 25 kt will continue until early evening before subsiding. A disturbance moving in from the northwest around 00z will bring a 3-4 hour period of isolated TSRA to the central IL terminals. Coverage is only expected to be around 20%, so kept mention at VCTS. However if a storm does impact a terminal a brief 40+ kt wind gust is possible. Gusty winds will pick up again by late morning, with a BKN VFR level stratocu deck expected to develop around the same time. 25 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$