910
FXUS64 KJAN 300609
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
109 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Earlier activity continues to diminish as it pushes east out of
the forecast area. I have adjusted PoPs to reflect the down trend
of precip chances through 1-3am. Hi-res guidance continues to show
shower redevelopment from around 3a into early/mid morning. Due to
this, PoPs increase, esp across central sections of the area. That
pretty much covers things through midday Thursday. /CME/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Through Thursday: A small convective system has continued to move
east into southwest portions of the forecast area as of early
afternoon. It has been producing some strong wind gusts, but
expect these storms to diminish as they move farther east into
more stable air. Overnight, there is some guidance suggesting
redevelopment of showers along a warm front pushing north across
the area, so it wouldn`t be surprising if we see an uptick in
convective rainfall late tonight and perhaps into the early
morning along some west- east oriented axis (e.g., recent
HRRR/ARW2 suggest along the I-20 corridor). As we go through
Thursday, a warm, moist, and unstable environment along a slowly-
shifting frontal boundary will support additional
shower/thunderstorm chances during peak heating hours. As of now,
there are no signals for significant MCVs/perturbations moving
across that might enhance the convective potential and increase
the risk for strong/severe storms. /EC/

Friday through Wednesday: More of a summer-like active weather
pattern is expected around the region through the early parts of
next week. Generally southerly flow in the low levels as surface
high pressure drifts across the eastern CONUS into early next week
will keep moist and unstable air flowing into the Gulf Coast and
Southern Plains regions. Guidance points to two upper-level low
pressure systems slowly moving east from the Plains toward the
Great lakes in that time frame - one passing east of our area
Friday night into Saturday and the other sometime Sunday into the
early part of next week. These and any other minor disturbances
will interact with the moist air mass in place to support diurnal
convection. There could be some better flow at times, with mid-
level speeds around 20-30 kts, while tapering off between waves.
PWAT values will meanwhile rise into the 1.6-2.0 inch range and
support locally heavy downpours. At this time, a highlighted
Marginal Risk for severe storms is out for much of the area on
Friday, but can definitely foresee additional Severe Storm
Outlooks being needed as details come into alignment. Microbursts
producing localized damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain will
be a possibility through the middle of next week. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

All TAF sites are VFR tonight and expect these conditions to
continue through the period. There could be some MVFR ceilings
early Thursday morning, but will become VFR after 14-15Z. The
winds will generally be light through the period./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  67  88  68 /  40  10  30  20
Meridian      83  65  88  68 /  40  10  10  20
Vicksburg     85  68  87  68 /  40  20  40  40
Hattiesburg   89  67  90  69 /  30  10  20  20
Natchez       87  68  87  68 /  40  20  40  30
Greenville    84  69  87  69 /  30  20  40  50
Greenwood     83  67  87  69 /  30  10  30  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/15