020
FXUS64 KJAN 271747
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1247 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Have made some adjustments to the near term forecast and messaging
based on the latest trends related to convective trends and heat
stress.

Increased subsidence and drying aloft in the wake of the overnight
convection and shortwave trough will suppress any additional
storm potential to roughly south of the Highway 84 corridor in
spite of the very warm and humid boundary layer conditions. A
marginal risk for severe storms continues in that area, and this
is a highly conditional threat based on sufficient lift for the
development of isolated storms. Having said that, the environment
will be quite unstable (e.g., MLCAPE > 3500 j/kg) and favorable
for intense updrafts if storms can develop, and deep layer flow
would be sufficient for a multicell segment or two capable of
producing damaging wind gusts in what will also be a high DCAPE
environment. Have also included a mention of dangerous heat across
southern portions of the area where heat/wbgt risk support a
limited threat in the HWO graphics. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Tonight: Mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions will prevail
with lows in the middle to upper 60s. /AJ/

Tuesday through next Monday...

The extended period begins with a building ridge extending from
southwest Canada to to the Texas Panhandle, while a low pressure
system swings across the Mid-West into the Mid-Atlantic/New England
regions. At the lower levels, the Lower Mississippi Valley is
progged to be wedged just west of the elongated east coast trough,
which will enable northwesterly dry flow into the region. This will
promote a hot and dry airmass maximizing over the ArkLaMiss region
on Tuesday. Highs are expected to reach the lower to middle 90s,
while heat indices climb into the lower to upper 90s. By Wednesday a
mid-level shortwave will bring the chance for isolated to scattered
storms across the western and central portions of the forecast area.
This system seems to be short lived with QPF return less than 1/4".
Luckily, this shortwave is expected to bring in a cooler airmass,
which will allow for highs in the lower to upper 80s and lows in the
60s through the weekend.

The remainder of the week look to have isolated to scattered chances
of showers in storms, primarily in the west, due to mainly weak low-
level shortwaves. The next best chance for precipitation looks to be
on Saturday as a stronger shortwave moves across the southeast
region, which will generate scattered showers and storms areawide.
By Sunday and Monday, temperatures will begin warming up again and
isolated diurnal showers and storms are expected in the afternoon
hours. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions and mostly light west to northwest surface wind
will prevail through the forecast period. Isolated storms could
develop in the HEZ to HBG corridor late this aftn near a lingering
surface boundary and this is reflected in the TAFs. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  68  91  68 /  20   0  10  10
Meridian      93  66  93  66 /  60  10   0   0
Vicksburg     94  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
Hattiesburg   94  70  95  68 /  50  10  10  10
Natchez       93  70  93  68 /  20  10  20  10
Greenville    91  69  91  69 /  10   0  10  10
Greenwood     91  67  91  67 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ060.

LA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ024-026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/AJ/EC