Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
269 FXUS62 KKEY 230943 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 543 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 The messy shower activity from the overnight hours is still working its way through the Lower Keys and surrounding waters this early morning, but the Upper and Middle Keys should remain dry through at least through the morning and early afternoon hours. There is a slight chance of showers today, but this is going to depend on whether or not the low-level moisture can encounter a lifting mechanism. Over the past couple of days, the lift came from either converging winds from offshore breezes or decaying outflow boundaries from Cuban thunderstorms. If this occurs again during the later afternoon or early evening hours, then some shower activity cannot be ruled out, hence why the forecast continues to reflect the 10 percent chance of showers. Beyond the occasional shower activity, the ridging that has begun to dominate the region will allow for very similar weather conditions each day. Skies remain mostly clear with some benign clouds passing by, and temperatures will climb to near 90 during the day before simmering down to the lower 80s overnight. Light breezes of 5 to 10 mph will prevail out of the east to southeast, temporarily turning more toward the southeast to south over the weekend as the ridge shifts its position. Even with the ridge shifting, it doesn`t look like any noteworthy atmospheric features will bring much, if any, change to the weather here. With this said, MOS guidance continues to reflect an increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms over the start of next week. Even though these chances are still low, between 10 and 20 percent, it`ll be interesting to see how the model runs handle this over the next few days. && .MARINE... Issued at 352 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure will remain the dominant pattern, allowing for an extended period of light to gentle east to southeast breezes through the end of the week. During the later half of Sunday, breezes will clock to a southeasterly to south direction and modestly freshen as the high pressure shifts its position. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 352 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Showers are currently concentrated around the Lower Keys, so have included VCSH through later this morning when activity is expected to wane. Short term amendments may be required if any of this activity is expected to directly impact the terminal. Surface winds will be from the east to southeast between 6 to 11 knots through the TAF period. && .CLIMATE... On this date in 2023, the daily record rainfall of 1.42" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 81 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 90 81 90 82 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest