Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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571 FXUS63 KLBF 240759 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 259 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a dry 24 hours, precipitation chances will increase Saturday afternoon and continue through Memorial Day. There is a threat for severe storms Saturday night. - After dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat for precipitation will return Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will also warm into the upper 70s and low 80s midweek next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 H5 analysis tonight had a closed low over far northeastern Wyoming, with a shortwave trough extending south southwest to Grand Junction Colorado. North of this feature, a secondary area of low pressure was located along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. Further east, another low was located over the southern tip of Hudson Bay. A secondary shortwave trough was present off the coast of northern California. The Wyoming low, forced a cold front through western and north central Nebraska earlier tonight. Thunderstorms in association with the front, were severe with tornadoes and large hail being reported from the eastern panhandle into southwestern Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms have since exited the area. Skies were mostly clear west of a line from Valentine to Broken Bow with cloudy skies east of this line. Temperatures as of 2 AM CDT ranged from 44 degrees at Gordon, to 56 degrees at Imperial. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Upper level low pressure, mentioned above over northeastern Wyoming, will track to the east northeast across northern South Dakota into northwestern Minnesota today. For this morning, surface high pressure located over central Wyoming, and low pressure over northeastern South Dakota, will put northern Nebraska in a nice surface pressure gradient this morning. Looking at bufkit data for Valentine, there are some mixed layer winds approaching 50 MPH this morning. This is on the higher end of of the forecast envelope as the HRRR has gust potential in these areas to 45 MPH. The latest ensemble NBM probabilistic forecast has a zero percent chance of wind gusts above 40 MPH this morning in northern Nebraska. That being said, will limit wind gusts this morning to around 40 to 45 MPH in northern Nebraska which is more in line with the slower HRRR and ensemble probabilistic forecast. Winds will begin to relax by midday as surface high pressure builds into the panhandle then southwestern Nebraska later this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 60s in the north to the lower 70s in the south. High pressure will track into northern Missouri tonight. On the back side of this feature, southerly winds will increase overnight with a nice 50KT low level jet developing from western Kansas into northwestern Nebraska. Was somewhat concerned about a small threat for precipitation overnight, given the degree of mid level warm air advection, which lifts from southwestern into central and northern Nebraska. However, moisture return will hold off until daybreak on Saturday, mitigating the threat for precipitation tonight. By late morning Saturday, enough moisture should flow into the area to support a chance for showers across northern Nebraska. This is where the best mid level warm air advection coencides with moisture. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s, while highs Saturday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 An upper level disturbance will approach the panhandle late Saturday afternoon. This will lead to a deepening surface low over northeastern Colorado. As the disturbance approaches the low and an inverted trough of low pressure late Saturday afternoon, thunderstorms will develop INVOF the surface boundary. This activity will be isolated initially, given the 40s dew points in the western CWA. As this activity translates east into the early evening hours, areal coverage will increase as storms encounter better low level moisture (ie. 50 something dew points). Shear will be favorable for some severe storms, however, coverage of severe storms will be limited by the low degree of dew points in the forecast area. Moisture will be more prolific over Kansas into southeastern Nebraska and this is where severe coverage will be more widespread. On the heels of the Saturday system, another shortwave trough will track across the northern Rockies on Sunday. This feature will then drop southeast into the Black Hills Sunday night increasing the threat for thunderstorms over northern Nebraska. Ridging aloft will then build into the central and northern plains Monday night into Wednesday morning, leading to dry conditions across the area. As the ridge breaks down late Wednesday, the threat for precipitation will increase Wednesday night into Thursday. High temperatures toward the middle of next week will rebound into the 80s from the 70s early in the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The main impact to aircraft operations will be gusty west to northwest winds that will be increasing through the predawn hours and continue into the afternoon once diurnal heating mixes the boundary layer. Will indicate gusts around 30kt at KLBF but approaching 40kt at KVTN. Winds start to relax later in the afternoon and will become light after sunset toward the end of the valid period. Radar shows some lingering showers moving through KVTN so will include an early TEMPO but otherwise a dry TAF period for central and western Nebraska. While conditions will generally be VFR, there will be a couple of hour with MVFR CIGS at KVTN this morning. Note: Due to a communications issue observations from the ASOS at KVTN are not being distributed. However the ASOS continues to function and is available by dialing in directly on the voice line. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...MBS