Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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891 FXUS63 KLBF 291109 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 609 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the evening hours, mainly west of highway 83. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Heavy rain is possible in SW Nebraska. - Another round of strong to severe storms is possible Thursday night from southwestern into central and portions of north central Nebraska. Heavy rain will be possible from SW into south central Nebraska. - Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night and Sunday night. Severe threat is uncertain at this time. - Warmer temperatures are expected beyond Friday with highs in the 80s this weekend into early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 H5 analysis tonight had a shortwave trough of low pressure over Wisconsin into northern Illinois. A second shortwave trough was located over eastern Quebec. Further west, ridging extended from southern Wyoming, north into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Embedded shortwaves were noted from eastern Colorado, south into the Texas Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms developed earlier this evening from eastern Colorado, south into western Texas. West of the ridge, closed low pressure was located off the coast of northern British Columbia, with a trough extending south to of the coast of northern California. At the surface tonight, high pressure was anchored over western Ontario. A stationary frontal boundary extended roughly from northeastern Wyoming, southeast into northeastern Kansas and central Missouri. Overnight, skies were generally partly to mostly cloudy over southern Nebraska, with clear skies noted from the Sandhills north into north central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT ranged from 46 degrees at Gordon to 61 degrees at Imperial. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The stationary front, currently anchored across the western half of the forecast area, will lift northeast as a warm front today. Winds will shift around to the south and will begin to increase later this morning. This is in response to the development of a surface trough of low pressure which will deepen this afternoon over eastern Wyoming. The southerly winds will lead to low level moisture advection today, resulting in surface dew points in the middle 50s by afternoon. Late this afternoon, a mid level trough of low pressure, will approach the surface trough around peak heating, leading to thunderstorm development in far eastern Wyoming. This activity will approach the western portion of the forecast area in the 23z to 01z time frame. As for the severe threat, it will be greatest over the western half of the forecast area given the degree of favorable shear and steepest lapse rates. The mode for severe storms will be hail initially, followed by gusty winds as activity tracks east of the panhandle. There will also be a minor threat for heavy rain in SW Nebraska where forecast PWATS reach 1 to 1.25 inches late this afternoon. Given the only marginal threat for heavy rain and 3 hour FFG of ~2.00 inches in SW Nebraska, will forgo a flash flood watch ATTM. Thunderstorms will transition into central and portions of north central Nebraska overnight weakening as they travel east. On Thursday, a frontal boundary will track east into portions of north central and far southwestern Nebraska. Surface heating, coupled with the front and the arrival of a weak mid level disturbance, will lead to thunderstorm development INVOF the front Thursday afternoon. The latest NAM12 soln along with the 00z HRRR support this forecast scenario. As for the severe threat Thursday afternoon, it appears fairly limited. Convective inhibition is weak so storms should develop early and deep layer shear is marginal ~ 20-25 KTS so widespread severe storms are not anticipated. However, Decent CAPE, 1-1.25 inch PWATS and the nose of a H85 low level jet nosing into SW Nebraska would once again favor a heavy rain threat south of I-80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A northern stream trough of low pressure, will force the front south into central and eastern Kansas Friday. This will lead to highs in the lower 70s and a limited threat for showers and storms Friday into Friday night. A zonal pattern aloft will set up across the western CONUS this weekend. During the late afternoon/evening hours Saturday and Sunday, thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming/northeastern Colorado/western Nebraska panhandle thanks to decent mid level lapse rates and abundant low level moisture. This activity will then transition east during the evening hours impacting portions of the forecast area. ATTM, given coverage and timing issues with the mid range models, will limit pops to the 20 to 30 percent range. The zonal pattern aloft will persist into next week. This will lead to highs generally in the 80s for Monday and Tuesday, with a continued threat for isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms, mainly during the late afternoon/evening hours. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through 00Z Thursday. South to southeast winds will increase this morning, gusting 25 to 35 kts through the afternoon. A line/clusters of showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Panhandle early this evening, advancing eastward into the early overnight period. At this time, greatest confidence on specific impacts from this activity exists for LBF. Strong winds will be the main aviation concern as the line passes through. For VTN, did cover with VCTS given uncertainty on if the line will break up as it reaches the terminal or not. Future amendments and inclusions are possible should confidence increase with subsequent forecasts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Viken