261
FXUS62 KMFL 041737
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
137 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

South Florida will remain in the periphery of a surface high over
the western Atlantic through tonight, allowing for continued
easterly flow and moisture advection across our region. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop over
interior and southwest Florida this afternoon as the sea breezes
develop and collide. The limiting factor for any convection will
be subtle ridging and dry air in the mid-levels helping to
suppress development over the area.

The forecast will be fairly similar heading into Wednesday, with
the exception of the surface high`s influence which will continue
to drift eastward, allowing for winds to veer from the east-
southeast. This will allow for a slight uptick in moisture
advection across the region, and thus we could expect more total
storm coverage and areal rainfall for the middle of the week.
Again, the interior and southwest regions will likely experience
the greatest convective coverage. Impacts will be limited to
lightning and locally strong wind gusts.

Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical
easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east
coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest Florida.
Temperatures could be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday once winds
shift out of the east-southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The veering of the low-level flow will shift the convective focus
towards the interior and east coast in the late-week period.
Thursday could be the wettest day for the east coast as a subtle
shortwave pivots down from the northwest. The main hazards are a
few strong thunderstorms that may lead to frequent lightning and
localized flooding. Another stronger impulse associated with
elongated short-wave north of the area could bring another round
of storms to round out the week, though a bit more uncertainty
here as the greatest dynamics could stay further north of the
region. Nevertheless, expect an increase in overall shower and
thunderstorm coverage across the east coast to round off the week.

Rain chances over the weekend will depend on the southward progress
of the front and the eastward extent of the building ridging over
the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). For now, a general 30-50% chance of
precipitation (PoPs) seems reasonable.

Temperatures will rise in the late-week and weekend period over
the east coast as the flow shifts more to the west-southwest.
Highs are likely to reach the mid to upper 90s. Peak heat indices
will likely approach or exceed 105 degrees by Friday and
Saturday. Consequently, heat advisories cannot be ruled out,
particularly if rain chances are reduced due to a weakened front
and/or stronger mid-level height rises ahead of the ridge.

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms could develop over the interior and
southwest FL later this afternoon with potential impacts for KAPF.
Easterly winds will persist through the period except for KAPF
where the Gulf Breeze will make its way inland. Light and variable
winds overnight, becoming more easterly-southeasterly tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Generally benign boating conditions should prevail through the
period. Easterly flow 10-15 kts will persist through tonight,
becoming more easterly-southeasterly tomorrow. Seas will remain in
the 2-3 ft range through the week. Nevertheless, scattered showers
and storms each afternoon could result in localized higher seas and
winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue today for all Atlantic
beaches as easterly winds prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  90  79  91 /  20  40  50  80
West Kendall     75  91  75  93 /  20  40  50  80
Opa-Locka        77  91  78  93 /  20  40  40  80
Homestead        77  89  77  91 /  20  40  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  78  89  78  90 /  20  40  50  80
N Ft Lauderdale  78  89  78  91 /  20  40  50  80
Pembroke Pines   78  93  79  94 /  20  40  40  70
West Palm Beach  76  90  76  91 /  30  40  40  70
Boca Raton       77  90  76  91 /  30  40  50  70
Naples           77  93  78  92 /  30  40  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...ATV