741
FXUS62 KMFL 311803
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
203 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Today will be a transition day in South Florida as breezy
east-northeast winds increase with strong high pressure building
across the Eastern seaboard behind a departing mid-level trough.
This will result in a generally cooler and drier day across the
area, with the chances for showers and thunderstorms over the
interior and southwest regions into this evening. While storm
activity will be suppressed, there could still be a few strong to
severe storms with decent mid-level lapse rates and cooler
temperatures aloft. Any storms will be capable of producing strong
wind gusts, frequent lightning, hail, and localized flooding.

On Saturday, a shallow backdoor cold front will push across the
area from over the Atlantic, reinforcing breezy easterly flow
over South Florida. There could be a few showers along the east
coast metro forming along convergence boundaries, but in general
most convective activity will again be over the interior and
southwest areas.

The most notable impacts from the breezy easterly flow will be the
cooler temperatures, especially across eastern areas. Highs today
will range from around 90 along the east coast, to mid to upper
90s along the gulf coast. Saturday`s highs will be a few degrees
cooler, with mid to upper 80s along the east coast, and low to mid
90s over the interior and gulf coast. Heat index values will not
be much different than the high temperature with dewpoints at or
below 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Pleasant weather and a less oppressive temperature regime will
continue across South Florida through the weekend, thanks to a
backdoor cold front across the western Atlantic waters. This will
maintain east-northeasterly winds, resulting in a milder breeze
from the Atlantic waters across the eastern portions of our CWFA.
Expect a few quick-moving, low-topped showers along the east coast
at times, with most convection occurring over the interior and
southwestern parts of the region. A generally quiet synoptic
regime should limit thunderstorm intensity, though a few strong
pulse storms may develop in highly unstable areas of the interior.
Early to mid-next week, winds will gradually shift from the east,
leading to a slight increase in temperatures across the region.
Morning showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected along the
east coast, gradually drifting westward towards the interior.

A much-needed reprieve from oppressive temperatures can be
expected through the weekend and into early next week across much
of South Florida. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid
to upper 80s along the east coast. Dewpoints will drop to a more
manageable 65-68 degrees, resulting in lower apparent temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s. A gradual warming trend will take
place towards the early to middle portions of next week, with high
temperatures climbing back into the low/mid 90s across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Generally VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF period. Easterly
winds of 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts continue into the
evening with less gusts overnight. Winds pick up again by the
afternoon on Saturday. A brief Gulf breeze is expected at APF
later this afternoon, with VCSH/VCTS through the evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

East-northeast winds of 15 to 25 kts will develop this evening and
overnight, creating hazardous boating conditions over the
Atlantic waters, which will linger through most of the weekend.
Seas will build up to 6-7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and 2-3
feet over the Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued
for the Atlantic waters from this evening through Sunday morning.
Additionally, there is potential for daily showers and
thunderstorms, which could result in locally elevated winds and
seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Developing east to northeast onshore flow will lead to a moderate
rip current risk today along the Atlantic beaches. Later on this
evening winds will strengthen and lead to a high rip current risk,
which will continue throughout the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

High pressure building north of the area will keep east to
northeast winds in place over the weekend, with gusts of 20 to 25
mph during each afternoon. Minimum RH values will drop to around
35% across interior and southwest areas, while staying above 50%
along the coast. Despite the drier airmass, there will still be
chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day,
primarily focused over the interior and southwest areas,
initiating along sea breeze boundaries. Afternoon dispersion
values will range from very good to locally excellent. The
combination of high dispersion and dry fuels over the interior and
southwest areas will lead to sensitive fire conditions that will
have to be monitored.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  87  77  86 /  10  50  40  40
West Kendall     75  88  74  87 /  10  40  40  40
Opa-Locka        77  88  76  87 /  10  50  40  40
Homestead        78  87  76  87 /  10  40  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  78  86  77  85 /  10  50  40  40
N Ft Lauderdale  78  86  77  86 /  10  50  40  40
Pembroke Pines   78  89  77  89 /  10  50  40  40
West Palm Beach  76  86  75  86 /  10  40  40  40
Boca Raton       77  87  76  86 /  10  50  40  40
Naples           74  95  74  92 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday
     evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Culver