272
FXUS62 KMHX 272356
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
756 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will then move through late tonight and Tuesday.
The next front moves through late Wednesday night or early
Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 750 PM...Severe threat appears to be winding down. Last
remnants of a substantial cluster of supercells currently moving
off the OBX. It appears some subsidence and mid level dry air
limited convective initiation farther south. So, tornado watch
has been cancelled for all except NE NC, which will likely be
cancelled once current convection moves offshore.

There could still be some additional convective development to
the SW this evening, but current model guidance indicates this
may not happen, and if it does will only be weak. As a result,
severe threat for the rest of the night is fairly low, but
nonzero, as we still have quite a favorable kinematic and
thermodynamic environment in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 310 PM Mon...The cold front will stall near the coast Tue
as the base of the upper trough approaches from the NW. The
front combined with a pinned seabreeze should be convergence to
generate scattered showers, with best chances in the afternoon.
Showers confined to the coast early with chances increasing
toward HWY17 in the afternoon as seabreeze tries to propagate
inland, likely having a difficult time with low level westerly
flow developing. Highs in the 80s, though will feel a bit cooler
than past several days, esp inland with dewpoints grad falling
into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 0400 Monday...Clearing through the week as cool high
pressure builds in.

Rest of Workweek...Upper trough persists with shortwaves
passing through the base of the trough Wednesday and again on
Thursday with weak SFC trough developing inland behind the
front. This troughing inland will delay the arrival of the SFC
high from the NW, keeping temps fairly warm Wed. Temps cool end
of the week as the high pressure begins spilling over the area,
MaxTs in upper 70s, MinTs in the 50s. Forecast remains dry
through this period.

Weekend...Upper trough swings through the East Coast and
offshore with SFC almost directly overhead Saturday morning
pushing offshore through the weekend. Get back to warm Serly
flow regime early next week ahead of the next front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Evening/...
As of 8 PM Mon...VFR conditions are expected through the short
term. Most of the convection this afternoon missed the TAF
sites, but there could still be an isolated strong to severe
storm tonight. Cloudbases should remain around 5000 ft, but
partly cloudy skies expected tonight and into tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 400 AM Monday...Showers and thunderstorms are expected
possible Tues with a drying trend setting up for the remainder
of the workweek. Periods of sub- VFR conditions are possible but
flight cats expected to remain VFR outside of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Mon...Latest obs show moderate to breezy SSW winds
10-20 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Southerly flow will continue to
steadily increase through the afternoon, peaking this evening at
15-25kt. SCA continues for the waters, sounds and rivers with
potential for several hours of 25 kt gusts and with seas
possibly building to 4-6 ft over the outer central waters. As
the cold front approaches tonight, the gradient may relax a bit
with winds grad diminishing towards sunrise. Front will stall
near of along the coast Tue as moderate S/SW winds continue with
seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. First round of thunderstorms
continues to move through early this afternoon, with additional
storms likely to impact the waters later this afternoon into
tonight. Where thunderstorms occur, there is the potential for
40-60 kt gusts, hail, and waterspouts.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 0400 Monday...The front finally pushes offshore
overnight/early Wed. SWerly winds 10-15G20kt. Winds briefly
turn Nerly behind the front early Wed before becoming SWerly
again as SFC trough approaches and moves through Wed night,
turning winds Nerly for the remainder of the work week. Seas
generally falling through the week; 2-4ft Tues, 2-3ft Wed, 1-3ft
late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ131-136-
     137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SGK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CQD/SGK/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB