685
FXUS62 KMLB 310616
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR and mostly dry conditions are expected. Light and variable
winds will increase into the mid-morning from the ENE at 10-12kts
and into this afternoon at 14-16kts with gusts to 22-26kts. Winds
will gradually reduce late this evening and into the overnight
hours. VCSH remains in the forecast at KLEE and KISM this
afternoon with showers/storms expected mainly over west Florida.

&&

.UPDATE... (Through Friday)
Issued at 915 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Messages:

- Drier than normal weather will continue. There is a low chance
  for showers and storms Friday over the interior. This weekend,
  shower chances mainly focus along the Treasure Coast.

- Not as hot this weekend as onshore winds increase.

- Increasing risk for another stretch of hot temperatures
  beginning later next week.

We have a small area of convective debris rain showers over Martin
County this evening, emanating from earlier storms across
Southwest Florida. This activity will diminish over the next
couple hours with dry conditions for all of us overnight. Some
patchy ground fog is possible as skies clear over Osceola &
Okeechobee Counties as well as mainly interior Martin & St Lucie
Counties. Lows will fall into the upper 60s to low 70s, except mid
70s right at the coast.

On Friday, northeast flow steadily increases in the boundary layer
ahead of an approaching, diffuse back-door front (of sorts). Mid-
level westerlies are forecast to be lighter than today. Therefore,
rain/storm chances are quite low (<15%) along the coast, only
rising to 20-30% near and west of Orlando-Okeechobee in the
afternoon. There is an increasing probability that a vast
majority of the storms on Friday afternoon will pop over the
western half of the peninsula and remain in that vicinity.

It will not be quite as hot tomorrow, particularly along the
coast. Highs Friday should range from the upper 80s beachside to
the low 90s over the interior and Greater Orlando area. Northeast
winds will increase to 10-15 mph, with gusts 15-25 mph by
afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Saturday-Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

High pressure ridge builds into the western Atlc and considerable
dry air is forecast to move in from the east. Have a small PoP
southward Sat/Sun, but confidence is low. The east coast sea
breeze will remain dominant in prevailing onshore flow, increasing
15-20 mph this weekend, with higher gusts. Stronger onshore flow
will help to keep high temperatures near normal, in the mid to
upper 80s coast and near 90/lower 90s inland. The dry airmass will
gradually modify next week with rain chances slowly increasing
20-30 percent Mon, 30-40 percent Tue/Wed. Temperatures will also
begin a slow climb but not getting as hot as it has been.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Overnight...Showers diminish this evening over the southern
Treasure Coast. Winds become NE 5 KT at the coast, 5-10 KT well
offshore. Seas continue 1-2 ft, perhaps up to 3 ft at times well
offshore Cape northward.

Fri-Mon...(Previous Disc.) Boating conditions will deteriorate
slightly into this weekend, as high pressure builds south down the
eastern seaboard then shifts off the Carolina coast. Onshore
winds increase 15 kts and even 15-20 kts at times Fri night/Sat.
Slight rain chances, mainly over the Gulf Stream. Seas 2-3 ft Fri
will build 3-5 ft Fri night-Sat, and 3-4 FT Sun-Mon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Fri-Mon...Min RH values will hold around 35% Fri over the interior
and this will persist through the weekend. Very sensitive fire
weather conditions will continue, as onshore winds are forecast
to increase to around 15 mph and gusty while rain chances remain
very low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  71  85  70 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  91  71  88  68 /  10  10  10   0
MLB  88  74  85  73 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  88  73  86  71 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  71  89  69 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  90  70  88  68 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  91  71  88  70 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  88  72  86  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...Fehling