Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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830 FXUS62 KMLB 310115 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 915 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... (Through Friday) Issued at 915 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Key Messages: - Drier than normal weather will continue. There is a low chance for showers and storms Friday over the interior. This weekend, shower chances mainly focus along the Treasure Coast. - Not as hot this weekend as onshore winds increase. - Increasing risk for another stretch of hot temperatures beginning later next week. We have a small area of convective debris rain showers over Martin County this evening, emanating from earlier storms across Southwest Florida. This activity will diminish over the next couple hours with dry conditions for all of us overnight. Some patchy ground fog is possible as skies clear over Osceola & Okeechobee Counties as well as mainly interior Martin & St Lucie Counties. Lows will fall into the upper 60s to low 70s, except mid 70s right at the coast. On Friday, northeast flow steadily increases in the boundary layer ahead of an approaching, diffuse back-door front (of sorts). Mid- level westerlies are forecast to be lighter than today. Therefore, rain/storm chances are quite low (<15%) along the coast, only rising to 20-30% near and west of Orlando-Okeechobee in the afternoon. There is an increasing probability that a vast majority of the storms on Friday afternoon will pop over the western half of the peninsula and remain in that vicinity. It will not be quite as hot tomorrow, particularly along the coast. Highs Friday should range from the upper 80s beachside to the low 90s over the interior and Greater Orlando area. Northeast winds will increase to 10-15 mph, with gusts 15-25 mph by afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 915 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Overnight...Showers diminish this evening over the southern Treasure Coast. Winds become NE 5 KT at the coast, 5-10 KT well offshore. Seas continue 1-2 ft, perhaps up to 3 ft at times well offshore Cape northward. Fri-Mon...(Previous Disc.) Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this weekend, as high pressure builds south down the eastern seaboard then shifts off the Carolina coast. Onshore winds increase 15 kts and even 15-20 kts at times Fri night/Sat. Slight rain chances, mainly over the Gulf Stream. Seas 2-3 ft Fri will build 3-5 ft Fri night-Sat, and 3-4 FT Sun-Mon. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Saturday-Wednesday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 High pressure ridge builds into the western Atlc and considerable dry air is forecast to move in from the east. Have a small PoP southward Sat/Sun, but confidence is low. The east coast sea breeze will remain dominant in prevailing onshore flow, increasing 15-20 mph this weekend, with higher gusts. Stronger onshore flow will help to keep high temperatures near normal, in the mid to upper 80s coast and near 90/lower 90s inland. The dry airmass will gradually modify next week with rain chances slowly increasing 20-30 percent Mon, 30-40 percent Tue/Wed. Temperatures will also begin a slow climb but not getting as hot as it has been. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 714 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR prevails. Monitoring some rain around Lake Okeechobee right now, but it will likely diminish before approaching FPR/SUA. Patchy ground fog development is not as likely overnight along the Treasure Coast due to slightly lower humidity levels compared to earlier today. NE winds increase on Friday to around 12-16 KT with gusts to around 18-23 KT in the afternoon. Shower/lightning chances look to be highest over the western half of the peninsula, leaving only VCSH mention in the TAFs for LEE, MCO, and ISM on Friday afternoon. Dry all other terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Fri-Mon...Min RH values will hold around 35% Fri over the interior and this will persist through the weekend. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will continue, as onshore winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph and gusty while rain chances remain very low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 87 73 85 / 0 10 0 0 MCO 71 92 71 88 / 10 20 10 10 MLB 73 88 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 VRB 71 88 74 86 / 10 10 10 20 LEE 71 92 70 90 / 10 30 10 0 SFB 70 91 71 88 / 10 20 10 10 ORL 72 91 72 88 / 10 20 10 10 FPR 71 88 74 86 / 20 10 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Heil AVIATION...Heil