968
FXUS62 KMLB 031016
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
616 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Key Messages:

- Fire sensitive conditions continue with a moderate drought

- Shower and storm chances increase mid-to-late week

- Temperatures rise mid-to-late week with Heat Index values in
  the 100 to 108 degree range

Currently-Today... Current radar imagery shows mostly dry
conditions across east central Florida. A shortwave trough is
situated to the northeast of Florida over the Carolinas. High
pressure remains in control at the surface over the western
Atlantic with a mid/upper level ridge building over the western
Gulf of Mexico. Today will be similar to yesterday with most of
the convection expected to develop to the west of central Florida over
west Florida as predominate onshore easterly flow continues over
east central Florida. Therefore, PoPs have been reduced from the
NBM significantly (PoPs ~ 20-40% over the interior and Treasure
Coast) with the greatest forcing expected again to the west of
central Florida this afternoon. Isolated showers are forecast
along the Treasure Coast (PoPs ~ 20%) this morning with scattered
showers and isolated lighting storms forecast this afternoon over
the western interior, as well as the Treasure Coast. The main
hazards associated with lighting storms this afternoon will be
occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and gusty winds.
Easterly winds will increase into the afternoon at 10-15mph with
gusts to 20-25mph. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the mid
80s to low 90s under mostly to partly sunny skies.


Tonight... Rain chances dwindle this evening and into the
overnight hours with a slight chance for showers (PoPs~ 15-20%)
along Martin and St. Lucie counties overnight. Overnight lows are
expected to drop into the mid 60s to low 70s with partly cloudy
skies.

Tuesday-Thursday... The forecast will remain similar through
Tuesday with high pressure over the western Atlantic, a mid/upper
level ridge building over the Southeastern US, and onshore
easterly flow in place. The NBM is persistent in higher PoPs than
MOS and global model guidance so PoPs have been significantly
reduced through Wednesday. Afternoon diurnally driven isolated to
scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast
Tuesday (PoPs ~20-40%). Guidance signals that a weakness in the
ridge will develop Wednesday with an increase in moisture ahead of
a shortwave trough Thursday. Slightly higher rain and lightning
storm chances are forecast Wednesday as a result, although the
greatest chance for rain is expected again over the interior, as
well as the Treasure Coast (PoPs ~30-50%). East winds are forecast
to increase each afternoon at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph.
Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are expected with lows
in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

The weather pattern shifts on Thursday with a major shortwave
trough forecast to track over central Florida into Thursday
afternoon. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast
into the afternoon (PoPs ~ 40-60%) and evening with storms
capable of occasional to frequent lighting strikes, gusty winds,
and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Temperatures are expected to
rise Thursday with onshore flow becoming less predominate and as
west-southwest flow develops into Friday. Afternoon highs are
forecast to reach the low to upper 90s with heat index values
slightly below heat advisory criteria. (Heat index values in the
100-107 degrees range).

Friday-Sunday... Drier air is expected behind the aforementioned
trough on Friday and into the weekend with a weak frontal boundary
forecast to move east-southeast across east central Florida
Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and lighting storms are
forecast into each afternoon with the greatest chance for rain and
storms expected over the western interior, as well as over the
Treasure Coast (PoPs ~ 30-50%). General lighting storms are
expected at this time with guidance showing temperatures at 500mb
in the -5 to -7 C range. Afternoon highs in the low to upper 90s
with heat index values in the 100-108 degrees range. Lows are
expected to drop into the low to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Currently-Today...Favorable boating conditions are expected with
high pressure in control over the western Atlantic. Onshore east
winds will increase into the afternoon at 10-14kts. Isolated to
scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast this afternoon
and into the early overnight hours. Seas are forecast to build to
1-3ft with up to 4ft over the offshore Brevard county waters.

Tuesday-Friday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
outside of showers and lightning storms. Isolated to scattered
showers and lightning storms are forecast into the afternoon and
evening Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. Scattered showers and
lighting storms are forecast Thursday which will be capable of
occasional to frequent cloud to water lighting strikes and gusty
winds. East winds will increase into the afternoon at 8-14kts
through Wednesday and then veer south-southwest overnight
Wednesday night and Thursday night before backing onshore into
each afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 1-3ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Today-Friday... Fire sensitive conditions will continue with a
moderate drought and minimal rain chances, in addition to minimum
RH values in the 40-50% range over west-central Florida through
Wednesday. Diurnally driven isolated showers and lightning storms
are forecast each afternoon with the greatest chance over the
western interior (20-40%), as well as the Treasure Coast to
Okeechobee county. Rain chances increase mid to late week with
scattered showers and lightning storms forecast. Minimum RH values
are forecast to drop to near critical values Friday and into the
weekend. East winds are expected to increase each afternoon at 10
to 15mph before west to southwest flow develops late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Mostly VFR through today into tonight. Ridge axis of high
pressure over the west Atlantic will remain north of central FL,
keeping an onshore flow across the region. A few showers possible
along the Treasure Coast through early this morning. Then, isolated
to scattered afternoon showers and storms will be possible along
the inland moving sea breeze boundary, but greatest potential for
rain looks to exist with sea breeze collision toward the western
side of the FL peninsula later in the afternoon and toward sunset.
Therefore, rain chances remain rather low across east central FL.
Have limited any mention of this activity to VCSH or VCTS for
inland TAF sites and along the Treasure Coast. However, tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible should any convection develop
over or move across any TAF sites this afternoon.

Winds are forecast out of the east around 5-10 knots, increasing
to around 10-12 knots with the sea breeze boundary as it shifts
inland during the afternoon. Winds then diminish to 5 knots or
less overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  70  88  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  90  70  91  72 /  20  10  20  10
MLB  87  73  88  74 /  10  20  30  30
VRB  87  71  88  72 /  20  20  30  30
LEE  91  71  93  73 /  30  10  20  10
SFB  90  70  92  72 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  90  72  92  73 /  20  10  20  10
FPR  87  70  88  72 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Weitlich