830
FXUS62 KMLB 310115
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
915 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE... (Through Friday)
Issued at 915 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Messages:

- Drier than normal weather will continue. There is a low chance
  for showers and storms Friday over the interior. This weekend,
  shower chances mainly focus along the Treasure Coast.

- Not as hot this weekend as onshore winds increase.

- Increasing risk for another stretch of hot temperatures
  beginning later next week.

We have a small area of convective debris rain showers over Martin
County this evening, emanating from earlier storms across
Southwest Florida. This activity will diminish over the next
couple hours with dry conditions for all of us overnight. Some
patchy ground fog is possible as skies clear over Osceola &
Okeechobee Counties as well as mainly interior Martin & St Lucie
Counties. Lows will fall into the upper 60s to low 70s, except mid
70s right at the coast.

On Friday, northeast flow steadily increases in the boundary layer
ahead of an approaching, diffuse back-door front (of sorts). Mid-
level westerlies are forecast to be lighter than today. Therefore,
rain/storm chances are quite low (<15%) along the coast, only
rising to 20-30% near and west of Orlando-Okeechobee in the
afternoon. There is an increasing probability that a vast
majority of the storms on Friday afternoon will pop over the
western half of the peninsula and remain in that vicinity.

It will not be quite as hot tomorrow, particularly along the
coast. Highs Friday should range from the upper 80s beachside to
the low 90s over the interior and Greater Orlando area. Northeast
winds will increase to 10-15 mph, with gusts 15-25 mph by
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Overnight...Showers diminish this evening over the southern
Treasure Coast. Winds become NE 5 KT at the coast, 5-10 KT well
offshore. Seas continue 1-2 ft, perhaps up to 3 ft at times well
offshore Cape northward.

Fri-Mon...(Previous Disc.) Boating conditions will deteriorate
slightly into this weekend, as high pressure builds south down the
eastern seaboard then shifts off the Carolina coast. Onshore
winds increase 15 kts and even 15-20 kts at times Fri night/Sat.
Slight rain chances, mainly over the Gulf Stream. Seas 2-3 ft Fri
will build 3-5 ft Fri night-Sat, and 3-4 FT Sun-Mon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Saturday-Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

High pressure ridge builds into the western Atlc and considerable
dry air is forecast to move in from the east. Have a small PoP
southward Sat/Sun, but confidence is low. The east coast sea
breeze will remain dominant in prevailing onshore flow, increasing
15-20 mph this weekend, with higher gusts. Stronger onshore flow
will help to keep high temperatures near normal, in the mid to
upper 80s coast and near 90/lower 90s inland. The dry airmass will
gradually modify next week with rain chances slowly increasing
20-30 percent Mon, 30-40 percent Tue/Wed. Temperatures will also
begin a slow climb but not getting as hot as it has been.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR prevails. Monitoring some rain around Lake Okeechobee right
now, but it will likely diminish before approaching FPR/SUA.
Patchy ground fog development is not as likely overnight along
the Treasure Coast due to slightly lower humidity levels compared
to earlier today. NE winds increase on Friday to around 12-16 KT
with gusts to around 18-23 KT in the afternoon. Shower/lightning
chances look to be highest over the western half of the peninsula,
leaving only VCSH mention in the TAFs for LEE, MCO, and ISM on
Friday afternoon. Dry all other terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Fri-Mon...Min RH values will hold around 35% Fri over the interior
and this will persist through the weekend. Very sensitive fire
weather conditions will continue, as onshore winds are forecast
to increase to around 15 mph and gusty while rain chances remain
very low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  87  73  85 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  71  92  71  88 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  73  88  75  85 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  71  88  74  86 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  71  92  70  90 /  10  30  10   0
SFB  70  91  71  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  72  91  72  88 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  71  88  74  86 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Heil