080
FXUS66 KMTR 301713
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1013 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 955 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024

Weak ridging will bring a minor warming trend to the region
through the remainder of the work week. A trough will move into
the Pacific Northwest this weekend though, which will help
strengthen the onshore flow and deepen the marine layer, bringing
a slight reprieve to the warmer conditions. However, high pressure
will build back across the region by the middle of next week,
bringing a much more pronounced warming trend to the region,
especially across the inland areas. Inland areas could be upwards
of 10 to 20 degrees above normal, with a moderate heat risk by
Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024

Water vapor imagery shows the upper level flow across California
is relatively zone this morning, with a few high clouds moving
across the far northern portion of the state. Meanwhile, visible
imagery shows a very patchy marine layer off the Santa Cruz and
Monterey coast line. A few low clouds did sneak into the Monterey
Bay this morning, but have since cleared, leaving us with somewhat
hazy skies this morning. Meanwhile, temperatures are currently
running similar to or slightly warmer than this time yesterday
morning. Expect this trend to continue into the afternoon hours,
as weak ridging starts to build over the region. This minor
warming trend will continue into Friday, before cooler conditions
develop for the weekend. At this point in time, the current
forecast seems to be handling this trends well, so no updates are
planned at this time. Palmer

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024

Forecast highs today overall look to be about 3-5 degrees warmer
than yesterday for locations away from the coast. Looking at the
mid-to-upper 80s inland, upper 70s to lower 80s for the Bay
Shoreline, and a spread in the 60s along the coast. Very pleasant
day in store today with mostly clear skies and light winds. It`s
a slim chance with decreasing moisture aloft, but some locations
across the Bay Area and North Bay have a small chance to be
treated to a fantastic sunset with some high clouds overhead.
Skies clear out once again tonight as stratus returns along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024

Much of the same Friday with temps largely unchanged. Slight
cooldown into Saturday where we`ll shave off 3-5 degrees and bring
temps right around seasonal normals for the rest of the weekend.
We may be facing another round of light drizzle across coastal and
high elevation locations Saturday morning as a weak trough deepens
the marine layer. This also means that we`ll see increase
overnight and morning cloudiness for areas that typically see
marine stratus. This pattern stays largely in place until about
Tuesday when we see a robust ridge begin to build over the western
half of the US. Medium range ensemble guidance is on board with
this pattern with high confidence. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index
now highlights the midweek period next week for temps well above
average, further strengthening confidence in the need to message
early for heat-related issues. Currently thinking the Tuesday-
Thursday time frame will be the most impactful with moderate Heat
Risk across areas outside the daytime marine influence. In terms
of what temperatures will look like, current best forecast is in
the realm of 8-15 degrees above seasonal normals, with Wednesday
being the warmest. Details remain to be ironed out, but looking at
the long range guidance, it seems this may be our first larger
scale prolonged hot period across the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1013 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR through the TAF Period for all but the Monterey Bay immediate
coast, which will see LIFR/IFR CIGs and pockets of mist overnight
and into Friday morning. Breezy to gusty winds build this afternoon,
with stronger winds just off the coast. Expect winds to become light
to moderate overnight. Widespread VFR returns in the mid to late
morning on Friday, with moderate to breezy winds expected that
afternoon.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy to gusty
westerly winds arrive this afternoon with peak gusts around 24 kts.
These winds reduce into the early night, but stay moderate through
the late night before becoming light. Breezy winds are expected
to return Friday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR Lasts through the late night with
LIFR/IFR CIGs and pockets of mist and fog forming on the immediate
coast into early Friday morning, which will move inland toward MRY
and SNS within a few hours of forming. Expect moderate west winds
build this afternoon but reduce into the late evening. Another round
of moderate west winds arrive as cloud cover erodes into late Friday
morning.&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 841 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024

Breezy to gusty winds last in the outer waters into the weekend
with gale force winds expected to return into Saturday morning.
Significant wave heights offshore build to 12 feet tonight with
but abating into Friday and through the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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