462
FXUS61 KOKX 281204
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
804 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts or troughs will shift through the region
through Thursday. High pressure then build in from Friday into
Saturday night. A weakening front will pass through on Sunday,
with weak high pressure returning on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A special weather statement has been issued mainly for LI and
southern CT as fairly widespread visibility down to a half mile
has been observed in fog and locally down to a quarter mile.
The fog is expected to burn off in a couple of hours with
improving visibility.

A cold front moves offshore this morning, then a surface trough and
mid level shortwave approach this afternoon and pass through
tonight. Remaining dry through tonight, but still a slight chance of
late afternoon or early evening a shower or thunderstorm over parts
of Orange County. Turning breezy this afternoon with a WSW flow.
With this wind direction, mostly sunny conditions, and 850mb
temperatures 10-12C, went close to the 50th percentile NBM with some
local adjustments. Highs 80-85 for most spots. This is around 10
degrees above normal. Low temperatures will be above normal as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front approaches on Wednesday with a weak low pressure center
forming along it with the help of cyclonic flow aloft. The front and
low pass through late in the day into the first half of the night.
The morning should be dry, but scattered showers are anticipated
thereafter with the best chances occurring with the passage of the
front. With enough CAPE and steepening lapse rates up through the
mid levels due to the cold pool aloft, a few rumbles of thunder will
also be possible until early evening.

Cyclonic flow aloft continues on Thursday as the 500mb longwave
pattern amplifies. This will keep the threat of showers in the
forecast. Although conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates will
be present again, CAPE will be lower this time around. Have
therefore decided to leave thunder out of the forecast. High
temperatures will be closer to normal, in the 70-75 degree range.

The upper trough axis is progged be over us Friday morning and to
the east of the forecast area by the end of the day. It should be a
dry day with just a slight chance of a morning shower east of the
city. Highs a degree or two warmer than on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level ridge will be moving over the area, while downstream
blocking develops over the western Atlantic. This should help
maintain sfc high pressure over the area from Fri night into Sat
night, then cause an approaching frontal system to weaken on
Sunday, with only slight chance PoP forecast for that time frame.
The Atlantic block does not look very strong, so weak ridging aloft
should return on Monday.

Daytime temps through the period should run above normal, from the
mid 70s to lower 80s on Sat, perhaps a little warmer both Sunday and
Monday. Low temps under the sfc high Fri night will range from the
mid 40s to mid 50s, then gradually moderate, with mid 50s to mid 60s
expected both Sunday night and Mon night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front moving through the NYC metros with VFR cond there and
points north/west. Still LIFR at the Long Island/CT terminals
but rapid improvement is now taking place, and KBDR/KISP could
be VFR by 13Z and KGON by 14Z, a little earlier than in the
TAF.

Already seeing gusts over 20 kt at KLGA/KJFK. Blustery cond
develop throughout by afternoon, with W flow 10-15G20-25kt,
highest at the NYC metros. Winds decrease significantly after
23Z-01Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected attm.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: Chance of showers and tstms, with brief MVFR or
lower cond at times in the afternoon and at night.

Thursday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible.

Friday and Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Dense fog expected this morning with a dense fog advisory in
effect until 8am for all but NY Harbor and the ocean waters west
of Fire Island Inlet. Improving conditions expected later this
morning.

Otherwise, there could be some gusts to 25 kt this afternoon,
but this would probably be limited to near shore. Don`t think
gust thresholds will be achieved on a widespread basis for any
of the marine zones, so will opt to not go with any advisories
and instead mention occasional gusts to 25 kt for some of the
waters. Sub-advisory conditions then continue through Thursday
with winds of 10kt or less. Winds pick up from the north on
Friday, but still short of advisory thresholds. Winds then
diminish for Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk continues today due to 3-4 ft ocean
seas, and on Wed with a 2-3 ft mix of SE and S swell. This is
supported by the latest RCMOS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...