322
FXUS63 KPAH 291104
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
604 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly below normal temperatures, dry conditions, and low
  humidity will be the main story through Friday afternoon.

- A somewhat unsettled pattern returns this weekend into early
  next week with daily rain chances along with a more humid
  summer-like airmass.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for 12Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Water vapor imagery reveals an upper-level trough over the Great
Lakes region shifting to the east early this morning. At the
surface, an associated low pressure system located across the
northern Ohio Valley is dragging a weak cold front through the
region into the Tennessee Valley. With a dry airmass in place
and weak forcing, no precipitation is expected today. As the
upper wave shifts across the east coast, northwest flow aloft
will keep the area dry through Thursday.

Global models depict shortwave energy traversing the Missouri
Ozarks Friday, which will introduce our next-best rain chances
after Friday evening. LREF clusters depict fairly good
agreement of this wave slowly meandering through the Ohio Valley
into Sunday, keeping daily rain chances through the weekend.
The latest NBM 4.2 probabilities of rainfall totals greater than
1 inch through this period are generally in the 10-30% range.

Ensemble guidance begins to diverge more greatly Monday and
beyond, though there are indications additional disturbances may
spin-up within the quasi-zonal flow aloft. With moisture return
and instability progged to be on the increase, additional
showers and thunderstorms appear possible into early next week.
Severe thunderstorm potential remains highly uncertain this far
out, though the CSU machine-learning probabilities do indicate
at least some chance for severe weather in the Monday-Tuesday
timeframe. This potential will have to be reassessed in future
forecast packages.

Temperatures are progged to remain slightly below the
climatological average through Friday, with highs in the upper
70s to near 80, and lows in the 50s to near 60. NBM percentile
data show a gradual increase to near to slightly above normal
temperatures Sunday into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

IR Satellite and surface obs show SCT-BKN mid level bases around
10K FT AGL early this morning. Similar to yesterday, we`ll
expect diurnally lifted parcels to produce SCT-BKN bases again
today in the 5-7K FT AGL range this afternoon. Otherwise it`ll
be a light northerly flow regime underneath continued dry
north to northwesterly flow aloft for an entirely Visual Flight
Rules forecast package.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$