904
FXUS64 KSJT 312356 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
656 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The latest severe weather/mesoanalysis analysis shows a dryline
well to our west over the Trans Pecos to a weak surface low near
Fort Stockton and a stationary front near the I-20 corridor form
the Permain Basin eastward across the Big Country. To the south of
the front across the southern 2/3 of the area, there is moderate
to strong instability in place, most unstable across the Northern
Edwards Plateau and effective shear bulk shear values of 35 to 45
knots over the southern half of the area.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly south of I-20 late this
afternoon and evening. Any storm that does develop will rapidly become
severe due to strong/locally extreme instability and good deep layer
shear. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.
Otherwise, going with low chance Pops for tonight, mainly during the
evening. For Saturday, looks mainly dry for much of the day. However,
storms will fire to our west along the dryline during the afternoon. A
few storms will probably move into our western counties by late
afternoon with an isolated severe storm possible. Expect warm and
humid conditions with highs Saturday in the 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A familiar pattern for this time of year will set up across West
Central Texas this weekend and into early next week, with weak
ridging and nearly zonal flow aloft with a warmer and unstable
airmass building near the surface. However, models are showing
this setup to be slightly weaker than what we have seen this past
week so far. We`re generally expecting some diurnal showers and
isolated thunderstorms lingering into Saturday evening through
Monday, before a drier and even warmer airmass takes over and
begins to cook parts of West Central Texas under triple digit
high temperatures again. Ridging aloft will continue to strengthen
across the area, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper
90s to 106 range on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring along and
just north/east of an outflow boundary, which extends from
Colorado City to Sterling City to Christoval to Menard to Mason.
Outflow boundary itself is moving slowly to the southwest.
Monitoring radar trends for possible need to include at KSJT,
KSOA and KJCT. The KBBD site has already been affected, with
a severe storm which produced a 55 knot wind gust at 535 PM.
The convection will dissipate tonight, but possibly linger to
Midnight or beyond. Late night and early morning low cloud
development is expected over our southern and central counties,
affecting our TAF sites south of KABI. Expect MVFR ceilings with
the low clouds. By mid-to-late morning, where some patchy cloud
cover should remain, expect ceilings to climb above 3000 ft.
Outside of convective activity, winds will be generally from the
southeast tonight. South to southeast winds are expected on
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  86  70  88 /  20  20  30  30
San Angelo  69  91  70  92 /  10  20  30  20
Junction    71  93  73  95 /  20  10  20  10
Brownwood   68  85  70  87 /  20  20  20  20
Sweetwater  68  86  69  89 /  10  20  30  30
Ozona       70  92  70  91 /  20  20  30  10
Brady       70  86  71  89 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19