Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
122 FXXX10 KWNP 171334 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 17-May 19 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 17-May 19 2024 May 17 May 18 May 19 00-03UT 2.00 2.67 2.33 03-06UT 2.67 2.33 3.00 06-09UT 2.00 2.67 4.00 09-12UT 2.00 1.67 4.00 12-15UT 2.33 2.00 2.67 15-18UT 2.00 1.67 2.33 18-21UT 2.67 1.67 2.00 21-00UT 2.67 2.33 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 17-May 19 2024 May 17 May 18 May 19 S1 or greater 25% 5% 1% Rationale: S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are at a chance 17 May due to the flare potential from now departed Region 3664. Probabilities drop to a nominal levels on 18-19 May from the remaining active regions on the Suns visible disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 17-May 19 2024 May 17 May 18 May 19 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) exist 17-19 May.