Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
845 FXXX10 KWNP 271231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 27 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 27-May 29 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 27-May 29 2024 May 27 May 28 May 29 00-03UT 1.33 2.00 1.33 03-06UT 1.00 3.00 1.33 06-09UT 2.33 2.00 1.33 09-12UT 3.00 2.00 1.33 12-15UT 2.33 2.00 1.67 15-18UT 2.33 2.00 1.67 18-21UT 2.33 2.00 1.67 21-00UT 2.00 2.33 1.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 27-May 29 2024 May 27 May 28 May 29 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 27 2024 0708 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 27-May 29 2024 May 27 May 28 May 29 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater blackouts all three days.