Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
587 FXXX10 KWNP 210031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 21 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 21-May 23 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 21-May 23 2024 May 21 May 22 May 23 00-03UT 4.00 1.67 1.33 03-06UT 3.67 1.33 1.33 06-09UT 3.00 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 2.67 1.33 1.67 12-15UT 3.00 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.67 1.33 1.67 18-21UT 2.67 1.67 1.67 21-00UT 2.67 1.67 1.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 21-May 23 2024 May 21 May 22 May 23 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storm exists due to the flare potential of Region 3685. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 21-May 23 2024 May 21 May 22 May 23 R1-R2 55% 55% 50% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts are likely from Region 3685 for days 1-2 of the forecast period, diminishing to a chance on day 3 (May 23).