449
FXUS65 KTFX 241741
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1141 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...
A few more days with scattered rain showers or a passing
thunderstorm is possible through the weekend, before some drier
air and warmer temperatures move in for a few days early next
week. Below normal afternoon temperatures are expected through
Sunday, but afternoon temperatures could be about 10 degrees above
normal on Tuesday. However, it does turn cooler with more
scattered showers developing by Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...

Given the showers across the North Central Plains, I elected to
nudge POPs upward for all plains locations this afternoon as the
added moisture should help to spur shower and thunderstorm
development once the clouds break a bit more. Otherwise, no major
changes were made to the existing forecast. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
24/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals excluding KWYS
during this TAF period. The main concern through this period will be
the chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms across most
of north-central, central, and southwestern Montana. At this point
in time the set up looks a bit hit-or-miss for thunderstorms across
the region but confidence was high enough to make it worth including
in the TAFs with either a vicinity tag or as a prob30 group for all
sites except KWYS and KEKS where only light showers are expected.
Otherwise, no other significant hazards are expected during this
period.

-thor

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 532 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024/
Today through Saturday...An unsettled weather pattern will
continue to reside over the CWA for a few more days. Patchy
morning fog will diminish by mid morning today. The flow aloft
will be out of the northwest today, as upper level disturbances
move through the northern portion of the CWA. 500 mb temperatures
will not be as cold as they have been, thus we will not be quite
as unstable this afternoon. Never the less, much of North Central
MT will see scattered showers today. On Saturday, an open upper
level trof will move through Southwest MT. This will result in a
fairly widespread area of rain to develop over Southwest MT on
Saturday morning, and then move northeast into Central MT by the
afternoon. Right now, there is about a 50 percent chance for lower
elevations to receive about 0.20 inches on Saturday, with around
0.40 inches possible in the mountains. Below normal afternoon
temperatures will continue.

Sunday through Tuesday...The upper level trof from Saturday will
exit the CWA on Sunday. It will be slow to exit, but the overall
chances for precipitation on Sunday will be lower, especially
later in the day. Afternoon temperatures will still be a few
degrees below normal for most areas. On Monday, an upper level
ridge will try to build over Central MT for a few days. This will
allow for drier conditions and warmer air to move into the CWA.
Temperatures are likely to be a few degrees above normal on
Monday, but could be close to 10 degrees above normal for Tuesday.

Tuesday night into next Friday...The southwest flow aloft on
Tuesday night will try to allow for a few thunderstorms to move
into the western portions of the CWA. A better chance for storms
will occur on Wednesday as the main upper level disturbance moves
through. Right now the instability looks to low for widespread
severe storms. It does turn cooler for later next week, as an
upper level trof tries to redevelop over Central MT. Expect
scattered showers to continue for Thu/Fri as well. Additionally,
there is the potential for strong winds by next Friday along the
Hi-line from Shelby to Harlem. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  39  64  41 /  50  30  70  40
CTB  60  37  62  40 /  50  40  40  20
HLN  65  43  63  41 /  20  10  80  50
BZN  60  35  61  36 /  10  10  80  70
WYS  53  30  51  31 /  10  10  80  70
DLN  61  36  59  34 /  10  20  80  40
HVR  62  40  68  44 /  60  30  50  50
LWT  58  37  61  38 /  50  20  80  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls