646
FXUS63 KTOP 041139
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
639 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms are possible along and ahead of a
  passing cold front this afternoon and evening today.

- Dry and seasonably warm weather returns Wednesday through Friday.

- Northwest flow aloft brings in multiple chances for overnight
  storms Friday and Saturday evenings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning depicts a shortwave trough axis
rotating over northeast Kansas with an additional trough axis
stretching across the western high plains. A weak cluster of storms
has formed over southwest NE that may impact north central KS later
this morning, if it can hold together. Also cannot rule out
light showers or an isolated storm developing across far eastern
Kansas through sunrise while the upper trough lifts in MO.
Focus turns towards the cold front quickly progressing through
Nebraska during the morning and afternoon, along with severe
storms developing in north central Kansas as early as 18Z and as
late as 22Z depending on which model solution you view. There
is also indication that the decaying thunderstorms entering
northwest KS may persist as an additional area of forcing before
entering central KS by midday. This would develop a few severe
storms along of south of I-70, capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. If this occurs and exits by late afternoon,
coverage of severe storms along the front may be confided to
north of Interstate 70 and far east KS in the late afternoon to
early evening. Another caveat that could lesser the severe storm
coverage is the timing of the front and degree of sfc
convergence along the boundary. While SFC CAPE rises to near
3000 J/KG with minimal inhibition in the late afternoon, mid
level lapse rates are not particularly strong (6-7C/Km). Any
storm that develops is still capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts. Convection will likely begin to congeal into a line
and gradually weaken as it moves through far eastern Kansas and
western MO from 00Z-06z.

High pressure settles into the region Wednesday, bringing back sunny
skies and lower dewpoints in the 50s. Amplified ridging to the west
sets up northwest flow through the central region, progged to bring
embedded vort maxes Friday and Saturday evenings. Ensembles focus
the higher QPF (> 0.10 inches) Friday evening towards south central
Kansas with perhaps some higher probabilities in northeast Kansas on
Saturday evening. Winds remain light throughout the week while highs
are in lower 80s with overnight lows around 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions to start forecast with observed MVFR stratus
progged to lift northward in the 13-15Z time frame. Lower clouds
attempt to scatter out as southerly winds increase up to 10 kts.
Short term models are trending together in two clusters of TSRA
impacting terminals, first being aft 19Z at KMHK and 21Z at
KTOP/KFOE ahead of the front. This could impact the coverage of
storms along the front so for now just have VCTS mentioned aft
01Z. Activity exits before 06Z as winds veer to the north less
than 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto