036
FXUS63 KTOP 261134
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
634 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop across the
  area this afternoon. The stronger storms may produce damaging
  wind gusts and small hail.

- Memorial Day will be dry and Sunny. Highs Monday afternoon
  will reach the lower 80s.

- Thunderstorms chances will be possible again Wednesday night
  through next Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Early this morning a longer wave-length upper trough was located
across the central and southern Plains. One lead perturbations was
lifting northeast across western MO. A second perturbations was
translating east across the central Rockies of CO and northern NM.

A surface front extended from western NE southward across west
central KS, then southwest into the northern TX PNHDL. An OFB
extended from north central KS near Quinter, then extended southeast
north of McPherson, then east-southeast just south of the CWA
border. A couple lines of elevated thunderstorms continue to move
east cross the CWA. These storms should not be severe. The elevated storms will continue to
produce outflow, which should push the OFB farther south. There may
be some minor flooding as these lines of storms push east across the
CWA. A cluster of severe thunderstorms over southeast KS will
move into southwest MO and remain south of the CWA. A wake low
may be forming northwest of the stratiform rain band across
southeast KS, just northwest of the cluster of severe
thunderstorms across far southeast KS. Some areas of the
southeast counties could see some gusty winds through the
remainder of the early morning hours.

Today through Tonight:

The surface cold front across west central KS will push southeast
across the CWA through the mid and late morning hours. A few CAMs
develop thunderstorms northwest of the front as DCVA ahead of the
central Rockies H5 trough spreads east across eastern KS. A few of
the CAMs have MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/KG, Inverted V
soundings, with steep lapse rates during the early afternoon
hours. So a few of the storms may be strong across the eastern
half of the CWA, with small hail and gusty surface winds that
may exceed 50 MPH in isolated areas. The main upper trough will
move east into the northern MS River Valley and western MO by
late afternoon. Any showers and thunderstorms that develop this
afternoon will push east into western MO by 00Z MON. Northwest
winds will increase to 20 to 25 MPH with some gusts up to 35 MPH
during the afternoon hours.

Tuesday through Thursday:

An amplified H5 ridge will move east across the Plains. However,
return flow of richer moisture may provide enough isentropic lift
for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night
into Thursday.

Thursday night through Sunday:

An Upper trough will move onshore across the Pacific northwest on
Wednesday, then slowly move east across the northern and central
Plains through Sunday morning. Deeper moisture will be in place and
any perturbations rounding the slow moving H5 trough may provide
enough ascent for scattered shows and thunderstorms. At this time
the stronger H5 jet should remain north of the CWA, so we may not
see too much in the way of severe thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Skies have cleared out over the terminals at 11Z. Some guidance
show MVFR ceilings developing between 14Z and 17Z. There is
some uncertainty, so I placed a tempo group for a brief period
of MVFR broken ceilings through the mid and late morning hours.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop around the terminals this
afternoon but PoPs will be less than 20 percent, so did not
include them in the TAFs. Skies should clear this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan